Home / NFL Projections NFL / Bears @ Cardinals CHI @ ARI

CHICAGO

BEARSCHI

4-3  |  Road

9
FINAL
Sun, Nov 3 • 4:05 PM ET
State Farm Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

CARDINALSARI

4-4  |  Home

29
Key Game
Tory Taylor
KEY GAME

Tory Taylor

#19 | Punter
@
Blake Gillikin
KEY GAME

Blake Gillikin

#12 | Punter
Player
Tory Taylor None-None
Blake Gillikin None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
0%
📊
CARDINALS
100%
BEARS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Chicago)
BearsCHI (-3.5) 0 CardinalsARI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

54.9%

Cardinals Cover

45.1%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around CHI -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHI)

CHI By 1-6 points

16.8%

CHI By 7-13 points

16.6%

ARI By 1-6 points

15.8%

ARI By 7-13 points

14.0%

AI Model Projected Score
24.5
CHICAGO
22.77
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
17
CHICAGO
23
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bears Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bears (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.7
D
Sim Cardinals (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 47.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 40.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 3, 2024 CHI @ ARI 9 - 29
Dec 24, 2023 ARI @ CHI 16 - 27
Dec 5, 2021 ARI @ CHI 33 - 22
Sep 23, 2018 CHI @ ARI 16 - 14
Sep 20, 2015 ARI @ CHI 48 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +14.7% more
Chicago: 151.0 vs Arizona: 128.8
Net Passing Yards (L5) +22.0% more
Arizona: 220.3 vs Chicago: 180.6
Yards Per Play (L5) +13.3% more
Arizona: 6.0 vs Chicago: 5.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
Arizona: 0.4 vs Chicago: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHI Score 24.5 9
ARI Score 22.8 29
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.3 / 19.5 18.0 / 16.0
Net Passing Yards 220.3 / 180.6 137.0 / 172.0
Rushing Yards 128.8 / 151.0 213.0 / 69.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.38 / 0.21
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 349.2 / 331.6 350.0 / 241.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 0.9 2.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 6.0 / 5.3 6.1 / 3.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHI Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
ARI
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -2.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHI Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
ARI
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -2.8
⚖️ Over/Under
CHI
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -0.5
ARI
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
CHI
ARI
CHI
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
ATS
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
TTL
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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