Home / NFL Projections NFL / Colts @ Vikings IND @ MIN

INDIANAPOLIS

COLTSIND

4-4  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sun, Nov 3 • 8:20 PM ET
U.S. Bank Stadium
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

VIKINGSMIN

5-2  |  Home

21
Key Game
Jerry Tillery
KEY GAME

Jerry Tillery

#94 | Defensive Tackle
@
Will Reichard
KEY GAME

Will Reichard

#16 | Place kicker
Player
Jerry Tillery None-None
Will Reichard None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COLTS
100%
📊
VIKINGS
0%
COLTS --
VIKINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Minnesota)
ColtsIND (-3.5) 0 VikingsMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Colts Cover

45.5%

Vikings Cover

54.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MIN -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

IND By 1-6 points

15.9%

IND By 7-13 points

14.1%

MIN By 1-6 points

16.8%

MIN By 7-13 points

16.5%

AI Model Projected Score
24.39
INDIANAPOLIS
25.97
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
20
INDIANAPOLIS
24
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Vikings Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Vikings Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Vikings (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.6
D
Sim Vikings (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 50.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 3, 2024 IND @ MIN 13 - 21
Dec 17, 2022 IND @ MIN 36 - 39
Sep 20, 2020 MIN @ IND 11 - 28
Dec 18, 2016 IND @ MIN 34 - 6
Sep 16, 2012 MIN @ IND 20 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +24.0% more
Minnesota: 218.6 vs Indianapolis: 176.2
Yards Per Play (L5) +14.1% more
Minnesota: 5.8 vs Indianapolis: 5.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +28.5% more
Indianapolis: 137.8 vs Minnesota: 98.6
Turnovers (L5) +19.9% more
Indianapolis: 1.4 vs Minnesota: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 24.4 13
MIN Score 26.0 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.6 / 18.3 29.0 / 13.0
Net Passing Yards 218.6 / 176.2 282.0 / 159.0
Rushing Yards 98.6 / 137.8 133.0 / 68.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.5 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.61 / 0.39
Total Yards 317.1 / 314.0 415.0 / 227.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.4 3.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.8 / 5.1 5.8 / 4.6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
MIN Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
MIN
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
MIN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -9.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
IND
MIN
IND
ML
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
TTL
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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