ANAHEIM
DUCKSANA
4-4-0 | Road
1
PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
3-7-0 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Lukas Dostal
#1 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Kris Letang
#58 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal | None-None | 1.92 | 0.956 | -- |
| Kris Letang | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
1.92
GAA
--
0.956
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
DUCKS
0%
PENGUINS
100%
DUCKS
--
PENGUINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
ANAHEIM
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Anaheim)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around ANA -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ANA)
ANA By 1 goal
17.9%
ANA By 2-3 goals
19.8%
PIT By 1 goal
17.0%
PIT By 2-3 goals
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Anaheim
2.96
ANAHEIM
Pittsburgh
2.85
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Anaheim
3
ANAHEIM
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Ducks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Penguins
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Ducks (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.1
D
Sim
Penguins (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 9, 2025
ANA @ PIT
4 - 3
Oct 14, 2025
PIT @ ANA
3 - 4
Jan 23, 2025
PIT @ ANA
1 - 5
Oct 31, 2024
ANA @ PIT
1 - 2
Nov 7, 2023
PIT @ ANA
2 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+29.1% more
Anaheim: 20.2
vs
Pittsburgh: 14.3
Takeaways (L5)
+10.3% more
Anaheim: 5.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 4.6
Faceoff % (L5)
+13.4%
Pittsburgh: 52.5%
vs
Anaheim: 39.1%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+13.1% more
Pittsburgh: 29.6
vs
Anaheim: 26.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ANA Score
3.0
1
PIT Score
2.9
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.3 / 20.2
13.0 / 26.0
Faceoff %
52.5 / 39.1
54.4 / 45.6
Hits
18.7 / 20.0
17.0 / 27.0
Power Play %
2820.0 / 2657.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
29.6 / 26.2
45.0 / 23.0
Takeaways
4.6 / 5.1
2.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
ANA
PIT
ANA
ML
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
ATS
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
TTL
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
0%
0-3
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