MINNESOTA
WILDMIN
5-1-0 | Road
5
PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
3-6-0 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Marc-Andre Fleury
#29 | G@
GOALTENDER
Joel Blomqvist
#30 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury | None-None | 3.00 | 0.897 | -- |
| Joel Blomqvist | None-None | 4.08 | 0.897 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.00 Ldr
GAA
4.08
0.897
Save %
0.897
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
WILD
0%
PENGUINS
100%
WILD
--
PENGUINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around MIN -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
MIN By 1 goal
19.6%
MIN By 2-3 goals
27.1%
PIT By 1 goal
13.5%
PIT By 2-3 goals
11.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
4.42
MINNESOTA
Pittsburgh
3.65
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Minnesota
3
MINNESOTA
Pittsburgh
6
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Wild
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Penguins
Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Wild (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.8
D
Sim
Penguins (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 21, 2025
MIN @ PIT
5 - 0
Oct 30, 2025
PIT @ MIN
4 - 1
Mar 9, 2025
PIT @ MIN
3 - 1
Oct 29, 2024
MIN @ PIT
5 - 3
Feb 9, 2024
PIT @ MIN
2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+13.7%
Minnesota: 30.9%
vs
Pittsburgh: 17.3%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+20.0% more
Pittsburgh: 30.0
vs
Minnesota: 25.0
Hits (L5)
+8.6% more
Pittsburgh: 20.6
vs
Minnesota: 19.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
4.4
5
PIT Score
3.7
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
16.0 / 16.5
11.0 / 16.0
Faceoff %
49.6 / 50.9
58.3 / 41.7
Hits
20.6 / 19.0
15.0 / 15.0
Power Play %
17.3 / 30.9
50.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
30.0 / 25.0
29.0 / 40.0
Takeaways
5.4 / 5.2
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
MIN
PIT
MIN
ML
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
ATS
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
TTL
25%
1-3
100%
3-0
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
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