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INDIANA

PACERSIND

1-2  |  Road

115
FINAL
Mon, Oct 28 • 7:00 PM ET
Kia Center
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ORLANDO

MAGICORL

2-1  |  Home

119
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
0%
📊
MAGIC
100%
PACERS --
MAGIC --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
209.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Indiana)
PacersIND (-3.5) 0 MagicORL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pacers Cover

50.9%

Magic Cover

49.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IND -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)

IND By 1-7 points

25.6%

IND By 8-14 points

15.7%

ORL By 1-7 points

25.1%

ORL By 8-14 points

15.0%

AI Model Projected Score
104.83
INDIANA
104.61
ORLANDO
Simulated Score
112
INDIANA
106
ORLANDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pacers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pacers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pacers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.2
D
Sim Pacers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 209.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 218.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 23, 2026 IND @ ORL 128 - 126
Jan 4, 2026 IND @ ORL 127 - 135
Dec 31, 2025 ORL @ IND 112 - 110
Apr 11, 2025 ORL @ IND 129 - 115
Nov 13, 2024 IND @ ORL 90 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +14.7% more
Indiana: 28.8 vs Orlando: 24.5
Field Goal % (L5) +3.7%
Indiana: 48.8% vs Orlando: 45.1%
Blocks (L5) +21.8% more
Orlando: 6.5 vs Indiana: 5.3
Rebounding (L5) +14.8% more
Orlando: 44.3 vs Indiana: 38.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 104.8 115
ORL Score 104.6 119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.6 / 30.6 31.7 / 44.8
Assists 24.5 / 28.8 26.0 / 25.0
Blocks 6.5 / 5.3 6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.1 / 48.8 47.0 / 46.6
Free Throw % 73.2 / 71.7 73.7 / 66.7
Rebounding 44.3 / 38.6 46.0 / 44.0
Steals 9.6 / 9.0 7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 16.6 / 17.3 15.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
ORL Advantage
49-42-0 (53.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND Advantage
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
ORL
43-48-0 (47.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORL
IND
ORL
IND
ML
61% 65-42
48% 47-50
56% 51-40
54% 45-38
ATS
64% 68-38-1
59% 57-40
56% 51-40
54% 45-38
TTL
57% 61-46
54% 52-45
100% 91-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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