DETROIT
PISTONSDET
0-3 | Road
98
MIAMI
HEATMIA
1-1 | Home
106
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
100%
HEAT
0%
PISTONS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
207.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
DET By 1-7 points
16.9%
DET By 8-14 points
6.8%
MIA By 1-7 points
26.8%
MIA By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
100.58
DETROIT
Miami
106.62
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Detroit
105
DETROIT
Miami
118
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Heat
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Heat (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 207.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
DET @ MIA
110 - 121
Jan 1, 2026
MIA @ DET
118 - 112
Nov 29, 2025
DET @ MIA
138 - 135
Mar 19, 2025
DET @ MIA
116 - 113
Dec 16, 2024
MIA @ DET
124 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+63.2% more
Miami: 10.0
vs
Detroit: 6.1
Assists (L5)
+10.1% more
Miami: 29.3
vs
Detroit: 26.6
Turnovers (L5)
+16.5% more
Detroit: 17.2
vs
Miami: 14.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.9%
Detroit: 76.9%
vs
Miami: 74.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
100.6
98
MIA Score
106.6
106
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.2 / 35.2
31.9 / 36.8
Assists
29.3 / 26.6
24.0 / 14.0
Blocks
5.1 / 5.4
3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
44.7 / 46.6
43.2 / 38.5
Free Throw %
74.0 / 76.9
75.0 / 82.4
Rebounding
42.0 / 41.6
44.0 / 54.0
Steals
10.0 / 6.1
14.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
14.3 / 17.2
12.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
DET
MIA
DET
ML
48%
46-50
55%
64-53
59%
48-34
49%
47-49
ATS
51%
49-47
53%
60-54-3
59%
48-34
49%
47-49
TTL
59%
57-39
60%
70-46-1
100%
82-0
100%
96-0
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