LOS ANGELES
LAKERSLAL
3-0 | Road
105
PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
2-1 | Home
109
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
100%
SUNS
0%
LAKERS
--
SUNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
201.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Phoenix)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PHX -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)
LAL By 1-7 points
23.9%
LAL By 8-14 points
13.3%
PHX By 1-7 points
26.4%
PHX By 8-14 points
17.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Los Angeles
99.94
LOS ANGELES
Phoenix
101.22
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
Los Angeles
112
LOS ANGELES
Phoenix
116
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Suns
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Suns
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Suns (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.3
D
Sim
Suns (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 201.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 10, 2026
PHX @ LAL
73 - 101
Feb 26, 2026
LAL @ PHX
110 - 113
Dec 23, 2025
LAL @ PHX
108 - 132
Dec 14, 2025
LAL @ PHX
116 - 114
Dec 1, 2025
PHX @ LAL
125 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+19.2% more
Phoenix: 5.7
vs
Los Angeles: 4.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.9%
Phoenix: 39.2%
vs
Los Angeles: 36.3%
Steals (L5)
+15.3% more
Los Angeles: 8.3
vs
Phoenix: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LAL Score
99.9
105
PHX Score
101.2
109
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.2 / 36.3
30.6 / 43.8
Assists
28.9 / 27.7
21.0 / 25.0
Blocks
5.7 / 4.7
11.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
47.4 / 47.6
46.0 / 41.5
Free Throw %
79.1 / 80.2
90.0 / 72.2
Rebounding
42.8 / 43.9
46.0 / 46.0
Steals
7.0 / 8.3
7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
15.1 / 15.5
11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAL
Advantage
57-35-0
(62.0%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
PHX
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAL
51-41-0
(55.4%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.4
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
LAL
PHX
LAL
ML
57%
60-45
61%
68-43
51%
45-43
54%
49-42
ATS
58%
59-43-3
61%
67-43-1
51%
45-43
54%
49-42
TTL
59%
61-42-2
61%
66-43-2
100%
88-0
100%
91-0
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