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INDIANAPOLIS

COLTSIND

4-3  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sun, Oct 27 • 1:00 PM ET
NRG Stadium
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

TEXANSHOU

5-2  |  Home

23
Key Game
Rigoberto Sanchez
KEY GAME

Rigoberto Sanchez

#8 | Punter
@
Ka'imi Fairbairn
KEY GAME

Ka'imi Fairbairn

#15 | Place kicker
Player
Rigoberto Sanchez None-None
Ka'imi Fairbairn None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COLTS
100%
📊
TEXANS
0%
COLTS --
TEXANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.8
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.8 points (Houston)
ColtsIND (-3.5) 0 TexansHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Colts Cover

39.4%

Texans Cover

60.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around HOU -3.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

IND By 1-6 points

14.9%

IND By 7-13 points

12.3%

HOU By 1-6 points

17.0%

HOU By 7-13 points

17.9%

AI Model Projected Score
22.91
INDIANAPOLIS
26.69
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
24
INDIANAPOLIS
17
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Texans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Colts Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Texans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.8
D
Sim Colts (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 49.6
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 HOU @ IND 17 - 19
Jan 4, 2026 IND @ HOU 30 - 38
Nov 30, 2025 HOU @ IND 20 - 16
Oct 27, 2024 IND @ HOU 20 - 23
Sep 8, 2024 HOU @ IND 29 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +22.1% more
Indianapolis: 1.0 vs Houston: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 22.9 20
HOU Score 26.7 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.1 / 19.0 21.0 / 17.0
Net Passing Yards 185.3 / 194.3 267.0 / 140.0
Rushing Yards 130.0 / 125.2 96.0 / 163.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.31 / 0.15
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.59 / 0.41
Total Yards 315.3 / 319.5 363.0 / 303.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.0 1.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.0 / 5.2 5.3 / 4.8
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
HOU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
IND
HOU
IND
ML
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
ATS
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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