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ATLANTA

FALCONSATL

4-3  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sun, Oct 27 • 1:00 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

BUCCANEERSTB

4-3  |  Home

26
Key Game
Zach Harrison
KEY GAME

Zach Harrison

#96 | Defensive End
@
Chase McLaughlin
KEY GAME

Chase McLaughlin

#4 | Place kicker
Player
Zach Harrison None-None
Chase McLaughlin None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FALCONS
100%
📊
BUCCANEERS
0%
FALCONS --
BUCCANEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
46.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Tampa Bay)
FalconsATL (-3.5) 0 BuccaneersTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Falcons Cover

49.2%

Buccaneers Cover

50.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TB -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

ATL By 1-6 points

16.4%

ATL By 7-13 points

15.2%

TB By 1-6 points

16.5%

TB By 7-13 points

15.6%

AI Model Projected Score
23.2
ATLANTA
23.49
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
17
ATLANTA
24
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Buccaneers Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.3
D
Sim Buccaneers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 46.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 11, 2025 ATL @ TB 29 - 28
Sep 7, 2025 TB @ ATL 23 - 20
Oct 27, 2024 ATL @ TB 31 - 26
Oct 3, 2024 TB @ ATL 30 - 36
Dec 10, 2023 TB @ ATL 29 - 25
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +16.8% more
Tampa Bay: 25.8 vs Atlanta: 22.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +14.3% more
Tampa Bay: 156.0 vs Atlanta: 136.4
Total Yards (L5) +12.4% more
Tampa Bay: 442.8 vs Atlanta: 393.8
Net Passing Yards (L5) +11.4% more
Tampa Bay: 286.8 vs Atlanta: 257.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 23.2 31
TB Score 23.5 26
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 25.8 / 22.1 24.0 / 20.0
Net Passing Yards 286.8 / 257.4 330.0 / 265.0
Rushing Yards 156.0 / 136.4 102.0 / 129.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.4 0.64 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 442.8 / 393.8 432.0 / 394.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.8 3.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 6.4 / 5.9 6.0 / 6.6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
60%MONEY40%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.3
TB
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
ATL
TB
ATL
ML
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
0% 0-4
ATS
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
100% 3-0-1
0% 0-4
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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