Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pacers @ Pistons IND @ DET

INDIANA

PACERSIND

0-0  |  Road

115
FINAL
Wed, Oct 23 • 7:00 PM ET
Little Caesars Arena
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

PISTONSDET

0-0  |  Home

109
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
0%
📊
PISTONS
100%
PACERS --
PISTONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
202.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.3
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.3 points (Indiana)
PacersIND (-3.5) 0 PistonsDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pacers Cover

73.5%

Pistons Cover

26.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IND -6.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)

IND By 1-7 points

26.7%

IND By 8-14 points

24.6%

DET By 1-7 points

16.5%

DET By 8-14 points

6.5%

AI Model Projected Score
104.29
INDIANA
98.02
DETROIT
Simulated Score
114
INDIANA
110
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pacers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pacers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pacers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.3
D
Sim Pacers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 202.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 DET @ IND 133 - 121
Jan 17, 2026 IND @ DET 78 - 121
Nov 24, 2025 DET @ IND 122 - 117
Nov 17, 2025 IND @ DET 112 - 127
Jan 29, 2025 DET @ IND 119 - 133
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +9.3% more
Indiana: 44.5 vs Detroit: 40.3
Field Goal % (L5) +4.6%
Indiana: 50.0% vs Detroit: 45.5%
Blocks (L5) +14.2% more
Detroit: 5.6 vs Indiana: 4.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 104.3 115
DET Score 98.0 109
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.4 / 35.8 27.3 / 29.0
Assists 29.6 / 28.6 22.0 / 32.0
Blocks 5.6 / 4.9 2.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 45.5 / 50.0 43.2 / 50.6
Free Throw % 71.7 / 73.1 85.7 / 88.0
Rebounding 40.3 / 44.5 38.0 / 39.0
Steals 10.9 / 10.2 6.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 17.5 / 16.3 14.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
88%MONEY12%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
75%MONEY25%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
DET Advantage
67-29-0 (69.8%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
DET Advantage
50-46-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
IND
DET
IND
ML
55% 64-53
48% 47-50
49% 47-49
54% 45-38
ATS
53% 60-54-3
59% 57-40
49% 47-49
54% 45-38
TTL
60% 70-46-1
54% 52-45
100% 96-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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