ORLANDO
MAGICORL
0-0 | Road
116
MIAMI
HEATMIA
0-0 | Home
97
AI Model Win Probability
MAGIC
100%
HEAT
0%
MAGIC
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
209.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.6
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.6 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -7.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
ORL By 1-7 points
14.3%
ORL By 8-14 points
5.2%
MIA By 1-7 points
25.7%
MIA By 8-14 points
25.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Orlando
100.98
ORLANDO
Miami
108.59
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Orlando
108
ORLANDO
Miami
115
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Heat
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Heat (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.6
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 209.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 14, 2026
ORL @ MIA
121 - 117
Jan 28, 2026
ORL @ MIA
133 - 124
Dec 9, 2025
MIA @ ORL
108 - 117
Dec 5, 2025
MIA @ ORL
105 - 106
Oct 22, 2025
MIA @ ORL
121 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+47.0% more
Miami: 14.0
vs
Orlando: 9.5
Assists (L5)
+20.3% more
Miami: 29.1
vs
Orlando: 24.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.3%
Miami: 34.4%
vs
Orlando: 31.1%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.1%
Miami: 46.2%
vs
Orlando: 44.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ORL Score
101.0
116
MIA Score
108.6
97
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.4 / 31.1
32.4 / 36.7
Assists
29.1 / 24.2
24.0 / 28.0
Blocks
3.1 / 5.9
8.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
46.2 / 44.1
39.0 / 42.7
Free Throw %
75.0 / 78.1
75.9 / 72.7
Rebounding
41.8 / 45.7
41.0 / 57.0
Steals
14.0 / 9.5
5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
16.2 / 18.0
11.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORL
Advantage
49-42-0
(53.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORL
43-48-0
(47.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.7
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
ORL
MIA
ORL
ML
48%
46-50
61%
65-42
59%
48-34
56%
51-40
ATS
51%
49-47
64%
68-38-1
59%
48-34
56%
51-40
TTL
59%
57-39
57%
61-46
100%
82-0
100%
91-0
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