CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
0-0 | Road
136
TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
0-0 | Home
106
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
0%
RAPTORS
100%
CAVALIERS
--
RAPTORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
202.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.6
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.6 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CLE -3.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
CLE By 1-7 points
27.3%
CLE By 8-14 points
21.1%
TOR By 1-7 points
20.7%
TOR By 8-14 points
9.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
102.9
CLEVELAND
Toronto
99.27
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Cleveland
CLEVELAND
Toronto
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cavaliers (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.6
D
Sim
Loss
Proj Spread: 0.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 202.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Loss
Proj Total: 0.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 3, 2026
TOR @ CLE
102 - 114
May 1, 2026
CLE @ TOR
110 - 112
Apr 29, 2026
TOR @ CLE
120 - 125
Apr 26, 2026
CLE @ TOR
89 - 93
Apr 23, 2026
CLE @ TOR
104 - 126
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+30.7% more
Cleveland: 5.2
vs
Toronto: 3.6
Steals (L5)
+12.2% more
Cleveland: 8.8
vs
Toronto: 7.7
Turnovers (L5)
+18.9% more
Toronto: 17.9
vs
Cleveland: 15.0
Assists (L5)
+11.7% more
Toronto: 30.9
vs
Cleveland: 27.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
102.9
136
TOR Score
99.3
106
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.7 / 31.8
38.7 / 46.7
Assists
30.9 / 27.7
25.0 / 29.0
Blocks
3.6 / 5.2
6.0 / 9.0
Field Goal %
47.3 / 44.1
41.9 / 58.6
Free Throw %
76.0 / 73.3
75.9 / 76.9
Rebounding
47.7 / 44.7
38.0 / 36.0
Steals
7.7 / 8.8
8.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
17.9 / 15.0
19.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
TOR
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
TOR
Advantage
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
CLE
TOR
CLE
ML
55%
57-47
60%
69-46
55%
48-39
56%
55-44
ATS
61%
62-40-2
67%
75-37-3
55%
48-39
56%
55-44
TTL
60%
62-42
59%
68-47
100%
87-0
100%
99-0
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