CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
0-0 | Road
110
HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
0-0 | Home
105
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
ROCKETS
0%
HORNETS
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
208.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.3
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.2 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -9.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
CHA By 1-7 points
11.8%
CHA By 8-14 points
3.8%
HOU By 1-7 points
24.0%
HOU By 8-14 points
27.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Charlotte
99.39
CHARLOTTE
Houston
108.64
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Charlotte
110
CHARLOTTE
Houston
115
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rockets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rockets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.3
D
Sim
Rockets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 208.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 19, 2026
HOU @ CHA
105 - 101
Feb 5, 2026
CHA @ HOU
109 - 99
Dec 23, 2024
HOU @ CHA
114 - 101
Oct 23, 2024
CHA @ HOU
110 - 105
Jan 26, 2024
HOU @ CHA
138 - 104
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+11.1% more
Houston: 53.4
vs
Charlotte: 48.0
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.0%
Houston: 47.9%
vs
Charlotte: 44.9%
Turnovers (L5)
+28.5% more
Charlotte: 22.7
vs
Houston: 16.3
Blocks (L5)
+19.0% more
Charlotte: 6.6
vs
Houston: 5.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHA Score
99.4
110
HOU Score
108.6
105
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.4 / 39.0
30.2 / 38.5
Assists
26.4 / 24.8
19.0 / 20.0
Blocks
5.3 / 6.6
4.0 / 10.0
Field Goal %
47.9 / 44.9
36.9 / 44.7
Free Throw %
66.2 / 75.5
80.0 / 79.2
Rebounding
53.4 / 48.0
43.0 / 56.0
Steals
7.6 / 8.7
8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
16.3 / 22.7
8.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHA
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
CHA
HOU
CHA
ML
61%
69-44
61%
60-39
59%
51-35
48%
40-44
ATS
62%
70-43
60%
59-40
59%
51-35
48%
40-44
TTL
51%
58-55
58%
57-42
100%
86-0
100%
84-0
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