DALLAS
STARSDAL
5-1-0 | Road
2
BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
2-4-0 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Jake Oettinger
#29 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
#1 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger | None-None | 3.30 | 0.875 | -- |
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | None-None | 2.00 | 0.933 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.30
GAA
Ldr 2.00
0.875
Save %
Ldr 0.933
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
STARS
0%
SABRES
100%
STARS
--
SABRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Dallas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around DAL -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)
DAL By 1 goal
19.6%
DAL By 2-3 goals
27.5%
BUF By 1 goal
13.3%
BUF By 2-3 goals
10.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
3.91
DALLAS
Buffalo
3.11
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
Dallas
DALLAS
Buffalo
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Stars
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Stars (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.8
D
Sim
Loss
Proj Goals: 0.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Loss
Proj Total: 0.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 15, 2026
DAL @ BUF
4 - 3
Dec 31, 2025
BUF @ DAL
4 - 1
Dec 31, 2024
BUF @ DAL
2 - 4
Oct 22, 2024
DAL @ BUF
2 - 4
Apr 9, 2024
BUF @ DAL
2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+33.6%
Dallas: 34.6%
vs
Buffalo: 1.0%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+16.2% more
Dallas: 15.8
vs
Buffalo: 13.3
Takeaways (L5)
+15.3% more
Dallas: 6.5
vs
Buffalo: 5.5
Hits (L5)
+24.7% more
Buffalo: 22.4
vs
Dallas: 18.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
3.9
2
BUF Score
3.1
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
13.3 / 15.8
27.0 / 16.0
Faceoff %
46.9 / 46.3
38.8 / 61.2
Hits
22.4 / 18.0
17.0 / 20.0
Power Play %
102.0 / 3457.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
25.8 / 26.3
25.0 / 30.0
Takeaways
5.5 / 6.5
10.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
DAL
BUF
DAL
ML
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
ATS
33%
1-2
0%
0-3
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
TTL
33%
1-2
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
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