PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
3-4-0 | Road
3
CALGARY
FLAMESCGY
4-0-0 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Andrei Kuzmenko
#62 | Left Wing@
GOALTENDER
Dustin Wolf
#32 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Kuzmenko | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Dustin Wolf | None-None | 2.82 | 0.921 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
2.82
--
Save %
0.921
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
0%
FLAMES
100%
PENGUINS
--
FLAMES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around PIT -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
PIT By 1 goal
18.9%
PIT By 2-3 goals
23.2%
CGY By 1 goal
15.5%
CGY By 2-3 goals
14.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.56
PITTSBURGH
Calgary
3.15
CALGARY
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Calgary
3
CALGARY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Penguins
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Penguins
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Penguins (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.4
D
Sim
Penguins (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 21, 2026
PIT @ CGY
4 - 1
Jan 10, 2026
CGY @ PIT
2 - 1
Nov 30, 2024
CGY @ PIT
2 - 6
Oct 22, 2024
PIT @ CGY
3 - 4
Mar 2, 2024
PIT @ CGY
3 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+22.5% more
Pittsburgh: 34.9
vs
Calgary: 27.0
Power Play % (L5)
+19.2%
Pittsburgh: 45.9%
vs
Calgary: 26.7%
Takeaways (L5)
+12.3% more
Pittsburgh: 5.8
vs
Calgary: 5.1
Faceoff % (L5)
+9.0%
Pittsburgh: 55.6%
vs
Calgary: 46.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.6
3
CGY Score
3.2
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
17.1 / 14.6
11.0 / 21.0
Faceoff %
46.6 / 55.6
36.8 / 63.2
Hits
27.2 / 20.3
24.0 / 31.0
Power Play %
26.7 / 45.9
0.0 / 25.0
Shots on Goal
27.0 / 34.9
25.0 / 38.0
Takeaways
5.1 / 5.8
3.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CGY
PIT
CGY
PIT
ML
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
ATS
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
TTL
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
0%
0-3
50%
2-2
Contextual Game News
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