EDMONTON
OILERSEDM
2-3-0 | Road
1
DALLAS
STARSDAL
4-1-0 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Ty Emberson
#49 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Jake Oettinger
#29 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Emberson | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Jake Oettinger | None-None | 1.00 | 0.968 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
1.00
--
Save %
0.968
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
OILERS
0%
STARS
100%
OILERS
--
STARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
EDMONTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Edmonton)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around EDM -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EDM)
EDM By 1 goal
18.0%
EDM By 2-3 goals
20.2%
DAL By 1 goal
16.8%
DAL By 2-3 goals
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Edmonton
2.71
EDMONTON
Dallas
2.57
DALLAS
Simulated Score
Edmonton
2
EDMONTON
Dallas
3
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Oilers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Stars
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Oilers (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.1
D
Sim
Stars (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 12, 2026
EDM @ DAL
2 - 7
Nov 25, 2025
DAL @ EDM
8 - 3
Nov 4, 2025
EDM @ DAL
3 - 4
May 29, 2025
EDM @ DAL
6 - 3
May 27, 2025
DAL @ EDM
1 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+21.9% more
Edmonton: 6.1
vs
Dallas: 4.8
Shots on Goal (L5)
+13.8% more
Edmonton: 31.8
vs
Dallas: 27.4
Blocked Shots (L5)
+12.7% more
Edmonton: 14.6
vs
Dallas: 12.8
Power Play % (L5)
+2.8%
Edmonton: 4.7%
vs
Dallas: 1.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
EDM Score
2.7
1
DAL Score
2.6
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
12.8 / 14.6
22.0 / 12.0
Faceoff %
50.9 / 52.9
37.1 / 62.9
Hits
15.4 / 15.0
23.0 / 10.0
Power Play %
1.9 / 4.7
100.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
27.4 / 31.8
24.0 / 31.0
Takeaways
4.8 / 6.1
10.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
EDM
DAL
EDM
ML
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
ATS
0%
0-3
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
TTL
100%
3-0
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
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