Home / NFL Projections NFL / Chargers @ Cardinals LAC @ ARI

LOS ANGELES

CHARGERSLAC

3-2  |  Road

15
FINAL
Mon, Oct 21 • 9:00 PM ET
State Farm Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

CARDINALSARI

2-4  |  Home

17
Key Game
JK Scott
KEY GAME

JK Scott

#16 | Punter
@
Blake Gillikin
KEY GAME

Blake Gillikin

#12 | Punter
Player
JK Scott None-None
Blake Gillikin None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CHARGERS
0%
📊
CARDINALS
100%
CHARGERS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
34.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Los Angeles)
ChargersLAC (-3.5) 0 CardinalsARI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Chargers Cover

54.1%

Cardinals Cover

45.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around LAC -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAC)

LAC By 1-6 points

16.8%

LAC By 7-13 points

16.4%

ARI By 1-6 points

16.0%

ARI By 7-13 points

14.2%

AI Model Projected Score
18.1
LOS ANGELES
16.66
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
LOS ANGELES
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Chargers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Chargers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.4
D
Sim Loss
Proj Spread: 0.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 34.8
D
Sim u0.0 Loss
Proj Total: 0.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 ARI @ LAC 26 - 14
Oct 21, 2024 LAC @ ARI 15 - 17
Nov 27, 2022 LAC @ ARI 25 - 24
Nov 25, 2018 ARI @ LAC 10 - 45
Sep 8, 2014 LAC @ ARI 17 - 18
Key Model Drivers
Time of Possession (L5) +10.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.5 vs Arizona: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +125.0% more
Arizona: 1.6 vs Los Angeles: 0.4
Yards Per Play (L5) +25.6% more
Arizona: 5.7 vs Los Angeles: 4.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +25.4% more
Arizona: 137.9 vs Los Angeles: 110.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAC Score 18.1 15
ARI Score 16.7 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.2 / 16.8 22.0 / 20.0
Net Passing Yards 193.0 / 177.9 145.0 / 336.0
Rushing Yards 137.9 / 110.0 181.0 / 59.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.29 / 0.43
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 330.9 / 287.9 326.0 / 395.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 0.4 1.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.7 / 4.6 5.9 / 6.2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAC
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
ARI Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -2.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAC
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
ARI Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -2.8
⚖️ Over/Under
LAC
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.0
ARI
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
LAC
ARI
LAC
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
ATS
75% 3-1
33% 1-2-1
50% 2-2
0% 0-3-1
TTL
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Garrett Wilson's Accountability Shines Amid Jets' 1-3 Start, But…
si 1 hour, 2 minutes ago
DeMarvion Overshown Pays Tribute to Jake Ehlinger with Custom Je…
si 1 hour, 9 minutes ago
Cowboys Release TCU Alum Emari Demercado, Activate All-Pro Tyler…
star_telegram 1 hour, 10 minutes ago
Eagles Receiver Dontayvion Wicks Added to Injury Report with Ham…
sportingnews 1 hour, 15 minutes ago
Steelers' Michael Pittman Jr. Sidelined Multiple Weeks with Foot…
newsweek 7 hours, 4 minutes ago