Home / NFL Projections NFL / Patriots @ Jaguars NE @ JAX

NEW ENGLAND

PATRIOTSNE

1-5  |  Road

16
FINAL
Sun, Oct 20 • 9:30 AM ET
Wembley Stadium
View Odds Details →

JACKSONVILLE

JAGUARSJAX

1-5  |  Home

32
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Chad Muma

#49 | Linebacker
@
Logan Cooke
KEY GAME

Logan Cooke

#9 | Punter
Player
Chad Muma None-None
Logan Cooke None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PATRIOTS
0%
📊
JAGUARS
100%
PATRIOTS --
JAGUARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
33.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.8
NEW ENGLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.8 points (New England)
PatriotsNE (-3.5) 0 JaguarsJAX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Patriots Cover

57.8%

Jaguars Cover

42.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around NE -2.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NE)

NE By 1-6 points

16.9%

NE By 7-13 points

17.3%

JAX By 1-6 points

15.4%

JAX By 7-13 points

13.1%

AI Model Projected Score
18.13
NEW ENGLAND
15.36
JACKSONVILLE
Simulated Score
28
NEW ENGLAND
23
JACKSONVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Patriots Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Patriots Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Patriots (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.8
D
Sim Patriots (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 33.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 NE @ JAX 6 - 35
Oct 20, 2024 NE @ JAX 16 - 32
Jan 2, 2022 JAX @ NE 10 - 50
Sep 16, 2018 NE @ JAX 20 - 31
Jan 21, 2018 JAX @ NE 20 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +26.2% more
New England: 2.1 vs Jacksonville: 1.5
Net Passing Yards (L5) +48.6% more
Jacksonville: 230.6 vs New England: 155.3
Yards Per Play (L5) +29.3% more
Jacksonville: 5.7 vs New England: 4.4
Total Yards (L5) +28.1% more
Jacksonville: 335.7 vs New England: 262.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NE Score 18.1 16
JAX Score 15.4 32
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.1 / 14.9 23.0 / 17.0
Net Passing Yards 230.6 / 155.3 193.0 / 257.0
Rushing Yards 105.1 / 106.9 171.0 / 38.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.6 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 335.7 / 262.1 364.0 / 295.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 2.1 0.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.7 / 4.4 6.2 / 5.5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NE
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
JAX Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NE
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
JAX Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NE
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -10.0
JAX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -7.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JAX
NE
JAX
NE
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
ATS
25% 1-3
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
33% 1-2-1
TTL
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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