DALLAS
STARSDAL
4-0-0 | Road
2
WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
1-1-0 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Casey DeSmith
#1 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Charlie Lindgren
#79 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey DeSmith | None-None | 3.11 | 0.885 | -- |
| Charlie Lindgren | None-None | 2.00 | 0.917 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.11
GAA
Ldr 2.00
0.885
Save %
Ldr 0.917
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
STARS
0%
CAPITALS
100%
STARS
--
CAPITALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Dallas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around DAL -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)
DAL By 1 goal
19.5%
DAL By 2-3 goals
26.4%
WSH By 1 goal
13.9%
WSH By 2-3 goals
11.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
3.34
DALLAS
Washington
2.64
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Dallas
2
DALLAS
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Stars
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Capitals
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Stars (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.7
D
Sim
Capitals (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 7, 2026
DAL @ WSH
4 - 1
Oct 28, 2025
WSH @ DAL
0 - 1
Dec 16, 2024
WSH @ DAL
1 - 3
Oct 17, 2024
DAL @ WSH
2 - 3
Jan 27, 2024
WSH @ DAL
4 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+11.5% more
Dallas: 29.1
vs
Washington: 25.7
Faceoff % (L5)
+2.1%
Dallas: 50.2%
vs
Washington: 48.1%
Hits (L5)
+65.1% more
Washington: 30.0
vs
Dallas: 18.1
Blocked Shots (L5)
+21.9% more
Washington: 16.0
vs
Dallas: 13.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
3.3
2
WSH Score
2.6
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
16.0 / 13.1
26.0 / 12.0
Faceoff %
48.1 / 50.2
47.5 / 52.5
Hits
30.0 / 18.1
26.0 / 10.0
Power Play %
2170.0 / 278.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
25.7 / 29.1
26.0 / 24.0
Takeaways
6.7 / 5.7
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
DAL
WSH
DAL
ML
100%
3-0
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
ATS
100%
3-0
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
TTL
33%
1-2
100%
4-0
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
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