BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
1-3-0 | Road
5
PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
2-2-0 | Home
6
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
#1 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Joel Blomqvist
#30 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | None-None | 5.84 | 0.860 | -- |
| Joel Blomqvist | None-None | 2.45 | 0.929 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
5.84
GAA
Ldr 2.45
0.860
Save %
Ldr 0.929
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
0%
PENGUINS
100%
SABRES
--
PENGUINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Buffalo)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around BUF -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)
BUF By 1 goal
19.2%
BUF By 2-3 goals
33.8%
PIT By 1 goal
9.4%
PIT By 2-3 goals
6.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Buffalo
4.2
BUFFALO
Pittsburgh
2.74
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Buffalo
2
BUFFALO
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Sabres
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Penguins
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Sabres (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.5
D
Sim
Penguins (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 5, 2026
BUF @ PIT
5 - 1
Feb 5, 2026
PIT @ BUF
5 - 2
Nov 26, 2025
BUF @ PIT
2 - 4
Oct 3, 2025
BUF @ PIT
4 - 5
Oct 1, 2025
PIT @ BUF
5 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+22.8% more
Buffalo: 24.6
vs
Pittsburgh: 19.0
Takeaways (L5)
+26.7% more
Pittsburgh: 8.4
vs
Buffalo: 6.6
Power Play % (L5)
+18.8%
Pittsburgh: 22.3%
vs
Buffalo: 3.5%
Faceoff % (L5)
+6.4%
Pittsburgh: 55.4%
vs
Buffalo: 49.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BUF Score
4.2
5
PIT Score
2.7
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.0 / 14.6
14.0 / 17.0
Faceoff %
55.4 / 49.0
62.1 / 37.9
Hits
19.0 / 24.6
18.0 / 21.0
Power Play %
22.3 / 3.5
40.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
29.5 / 27.7
43.0 / 33.0
Takeaways
8.4 / 6.6
11.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
BUF
PIT
BUF
ML
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
ATS
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
100%
3-0
TTL
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
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