Home / NFL Projections NFL / Jaguars @ Bears JAX @ CHI

JACKSONVILLE

JAGUARSJAX

1-4  |  Road

16
FINAL
Sun, Oct 13 • 9:30 AM ET
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

BEARSCHI

3-2  |  Home

35
Key Game
Logan Cooke
KEY GAME

Logan Cooke

#9 | Punter
@
Tory Taylor
KEY GAME

Tory Taylor

#19 | Punter
Player
Logan Cooke None-None
Tory Taylor None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
100%
📊
BEARS
0%
JAGUARS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Chicago)
JaguarsJAX (-3.5) 0 BearsCHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jaguars Cover

23.8%

Bears Cover

76.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CHI -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHI)

JAX By 1-6 points

10.7%

JAX By 7-13 points

7.3%

CHI By 1-6 points

15.3%

CHI By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
20.64
JACKSONVILLE
30.62
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
24
JACKSONVILLE
21
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bears Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jaguars Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Jaguars (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 51.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 13, 2024 JAX @ CHI 16 - 35
Dec 27, 2020 CHI @ JAX 41 - 17
Oct 16, 2016 JAX @ CHI 17 - 16
Oct 7, 2012 CHI @ JAX 41 - 3
Dec 7, 2008 JAX @ CHI 10 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +37.0% more
Jacksonville: 1.3 vs Chicago: 0.8
Yards Per Play (L5) +20.5% more
Jacksonville: 6.2 vs Chicago: 5.0
Net Passing Yards (L5) +9.9% more
Jacksonville: 241.0 vs Chicago: 217.1
Total Yards (L5) +9.7% more
Jacksonville: 364.6 vs Chicago: 329.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JAX Score 20.6 16
CHI Score 30.6 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.2 / 18.7 25.0 / 17.0
Net Passing Yards 217.1 / 241.0 221.0 / 210.0
Rushing Yards 112.3 / 123.6 152.0 / 68.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.45 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 329.4 / 364.6 373.0 / 278.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.3 1.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.0 / 6.2 6.1 / 4.6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
34%MONEY66%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JAX
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
CHI
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JAX
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
CHI
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
⚖️ Over/Under
JAX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -7.1
CHI
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHI
JAX
CHI
JAX
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
ATS
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
TTL
0% 0-4
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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