Home / NFL Projections NFL / Texans @ Patriots HOU @ NE

HOUSTON

TEXANSHOU

4-1  |  Road

41
FINAL
Sun, Oct 13 • 1:00 PM ET
Gillette Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW ENGLAND

PATRIOTSNE

1-4  |  Home

21
Key Game
Kayshon Boutte
KEY GAME

Kayshon Boutte

#14 | Wide Receiver
@
Bryce Baringer
KEY GAME

Bryce Baringer

#17 | Punter
Player
Kayshon Boutte None-None
Bryce Baringer None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXANS
0%
📊
PATRIOTS
100%
TEXANS --
PATRIOTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
29.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Houston)
TexansHOU (-3.5) 0 PatriotsNE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texans Cover

54.4%

Patriots Cover

45.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around HOU -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-6 points

16.8%

HOU By 7-13 points

16.5%

NE By 1-6 points

15.9%

NE By 7-13 points

14.1%

AI Model Projected Score
15.73
HOUSTON
14.18
NEW ENGLAND
Simulated Score
21
HOUSTON
14
NEW ENGLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Texans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Texans Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Texans (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.6
D
Sim Texans (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 29.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 35.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 18, 2026 HOU @ NE 16 - 28
Oct 13, 2024 HOU @ NE 41 - 21
Oct 10, 2021 NE @ HOU 25 - 22
Nov 22, 2020 NE @ HOU 20 - 27
Dec 1, 2019 NE @ HOU 22 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +55.4% more
Houston: 287.7 vs New England: 128.4
Total Yards (L5) +34.4% more
Houston: 377.7 vs New England: 247.7
First Downs (L5) +28.9% more
Houston: 19.4 vs New England: 13.8
Yards Per Play (L5) +26.0% more
Houston: 5.8 vs New England: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 15.7 41
NE Score 14.2 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 13.8 / 19.4 17.0 / 20.0
Net Passing Yards 128.4 / 287.7 209.0 / 176.0
Rushing Yards 119.3 / 89.9 82.0 / 192.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.23 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 247.7 / 377.7 291.0 / 368.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.3 4.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 4.3 / 5.8 4.6 / 5.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
91%MONEY9%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
NE Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
NE Advantage
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.0
NE
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -10.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NE
HOU
NE
HOU
ML
75% 3-1
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
ATS
33% 1-2-1
0% 0-4
33% 1-2-1
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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