Home / NFL Projections NFL / Falcons @ Panthers ATL @ CAR

ATLANTA

FALCONSATL

3-2  |  Road

38
FINAL
Sun, Oct 13 • 4:25 PM ET
Bank of America Stadium
View Odds Details →

CAROLINA

PANTHERSCAR

1-4  |  Home

20
Key Game
DeAngelo Malone
KEY GAME

DeAngelo Malone

#50 | Linebacker
@
Chau Smith-Wade
KEY GAME

Chau Smith-Wade

#26 | Cornerback
Player
DeAngelo Malone None-None
Chau Smith-Wade None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FALCONS
0%
📊
PANTHERS
100%
FALCONS --
PANTHERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
26.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.4
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.4 points (Atlanta)
FalconsATL (-3.5) 0 PanthersCAR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Falcons Cover

59.6%

Panthers Cover

40.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ATL -3.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)

ATL By 1-6 points

17.0%

ATL By 7-13 points

17.7%

CAR By 1-6 points

15.0%

CAR By 7-13 points

12.6%

AI Model Projected Score
14.87
ATLANTA
11.45
CAROLINA
Simulated Score
23
ATLANTA
20
CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Falcons Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Falcons Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Falcons (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.4
D
Sim Falcons (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 26.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 43.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 CAR @ ATL 34 - 3
Nov 16, 2025 CAR @ ATL 30 - 27
Sep 21, 2025 ATL @ CAR 0 - 30
Jan 5, 2025 CAR @ ATL 44 - 38
Oct 13, 2024 ATL @ CAR 38 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +40.1% more
Atlanta: 306.2 vs Carolina: 183.5
Total Yards (L5) +23.4% more
Atlanta: 397.9 vs Carolina: 304.6
Yards Per Play (L5) +20.7% more
Atlanta: 6.2 vs Carolina: 4.9
First Downs (L5) +18.4% more
Atlanta: 20.6 vs Carolina: 16.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 14.9 38
CAR Score 11.5 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.8 / 20.6 21.0 / 25.0
Net Passing Yards 183.5 / 306.2 221.0 / 225.0
Rushing Yards 121.1 / 91.7 114.0 / 198.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.45 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 304.6 / 397.9 335.0 / 423.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.2 2.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 4.9 / 6.2 5.4 / 6.2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
95%MONEY5%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
79%MONEY21%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
CAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
CAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.3
CAR
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +11.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAR
ATL
CAR
ATL
ML
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
ATS
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
0% 0-4
TTL
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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