Home / NFL Projections NFL / Panthers @ Bears CAR @ CHI

CAROLINA

PANTHERSCAR

2-2  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sun, Oct 6 • 1:00 PM ET
Soldier Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

BEARSCHI

2-2  |  Home

36
Key Game
Thomas Incoom
KEY GAME

Thomas Incoom

#48 | Linebacker
@
Tory Taylor
KEY GAME

Tory Taylor

#19 | Punter
Player
Thomas Incoom None-None
Tory Taylor None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
100%
📊
BEARS
0%
PANTHERS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
39.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.6
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.6 points (Chicago)
PanthersCAR (-3.5) 0 BearsCHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Panthers Cover

31.8%

Bears Cover

68.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CHI -6.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHI)

CAR By 1-6 points

13.1%

CAR By 7-13 points

9.9%

CHI By 1-6 points

16.6%

CHI By 7-13 points

19.2%

AI Model Projected Score
16.32
CAROLINA
22.93
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
20
CAROLINA
17
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bears Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Panthers Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.6
D
Sim Panthers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 39.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 37.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 CHI @ CAR 59 - 37
Oct 6, 2024 CAR @ CHI 10 - 36
Nov 9, 2023 CAR @ CHI 13 - 16
Oct 18, 2020 CHI @ CAR 23 - 16
Oct 22, 2017 CAR @ CHI 3 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +17.8% more
Chicago: 1.2 vs Carolina: 1.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +14.2% more
Carolina: 121.7 vs Chicago: 104.4
Total Yards (L5) +9.3% more
Carolina: 310.9 vs Chicago: 282.0
Yards Per Play (L5) +9.1% more
Carolina: 4.8 vs Chicago: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CAR Score 16.3 10
CHI Score 22.9 36
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.2 / 18.2 24.0 / 14.0
Net Passing Yards 177.6 / 189.2 296.0 / 172.0
Rushing Yards 104.4 / 121.7 128.0 / 120.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.36 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 282.0 / 310.9 424.0 / 292.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.0 0.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play 4.4 / 4.8 6.1 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
CHI Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
CHI Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
⚖️ Over/Under
CAR
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +11.5
CHI
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHI
CAR
CHI
CAR
ML
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
TTL
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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