Home / NFL Projections NFL / Colts @ Jaguars IND @ JAX

INDIANAPOLIS

COLTSIND

0-4  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sun, Oct 6 • 1:00 PM ET
EverBank Stadium
View Odds Details →

JACKSONVILLE

JAGUARSJAX

0-4  |  Home

37
Key Game
Rigoberto Sanchez
KEY GAME

Rigoberto Sanchez

#8 | Punter
@
Logan Cooke
KEY GAME

Logan Cooke

#9 | Punter
Player
Rigoberto Sanchez None-None
Logan Cooke None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COLTS
100%
📊
JAGUARS
0%
COLTS --
JAGUARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
JACKSONVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Jacksonville)
ColtsIND (-3.5) 0 JaguarsJAX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Colts Cover

46.6%

Jaguars Cover

53.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around JAX -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JAX)

IND By 1-6 points

16.0%

IND By 7-13 points

14.4%

JAX By 1-6 points

16.7%

JAX By 7-13 points

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
20.05
INDIANAPOLIS
21.26
JACKSONVILLE
Simulated Score
27
INDIANAPOLIS
21
JACKSONVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Jaguars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Colts Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Jaguars (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.2
D
Sim Colts (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 41.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 28, 2025 JAX @ IND 23 - 17
Dec 7, 2025 IND @ JAX 19 - 36
Jan 5, 2025 JAX @ IND 23 - 26
Oct 6, 2024 IND @ JAX 34 - 37
Oct 15, 2023 IND @ JAX 20 - 37
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +20.9% more
Indianapolis: 1.2 vs Jacksonville: 0.9
Yards Per Play (L5) +14.5% more
Indianapolis: 5.9 vs Jacksonville: 5.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +11.8% more
Indianapolis: 138.7 vs Jacksonville: 122.4
Total Yards (L5) +10.6% more
Indianapolis: 333.7 vs Jacksonville: 298.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 20.1 34
JAX Score 21.3 37
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.1 / 18.7 20.0 / 25.0
Net Passing Yards 175.9 / 195.0 371.0 / 348.0
Rushing Yards 122.4 / 138.7 126.0 / 99.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.3 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 298.3 / 333.7 497.0 / 447.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.2 2.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.0 / 5.9 8.7 / 6.5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
65%MONEY35%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
JAX Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
JAX
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
JAX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -7.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JAX
IND
JAX
IND
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
TTL
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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