Home / NFL Projections NFL / Cardinals @ 49ers ARI @ SF

ARIZONA

CARDINALSARI

2-2  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sun, Oct 6 • 4:05 PM ET
Levi's Stadium
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

49ERSSF

2-2  |  Home

23
Key Game
Blake Gillikin
KEY GAME

Blake Gillikin

#12 | Punter
@
Sam Okuayinonu
KEY GAME

Sam Okuayinonu

#91 | Defensive Tackle
Player
Blake Gillikin None-None
Sam Okuayinonu None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
100%
📊
49ERS
0%
CARDINALS --
49ERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
43.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.6
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.6 points (San Francisco)
CardinalsARI (-3.5) 0 49ersSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

29.5%

49ers Cover

70.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SF -7.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

ARI By 1-6 points

12.5%

ARI By 7-13 points

9.1%

SF By 1-6 points

16.3%

SF By 7-13 points

19.4%

AI Model Projected Score
18.13
ARIZONA
25.69
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
ARIZONA
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI 49ers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI 49ers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.6
D
Sim Loss
Proj Spread: 0.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 43.8
D
Sim u0.0 Loss
Proj Total: 0.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 ARI @ SF 30 - 36
Nov 16, 2025 SF @ ARI 41 - 22
Sep 21, 2025 ARI @ SF 15 - 16
Jan 5, 2025 SF @ ARI 24 - 47
Oct 6, 2024 ARI @ SF 24 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +52.9% more
San Francisco: 274.1 vs Arizona: 179.3
Turnovers (L5) +52.0% more
San Francisco: 1.4 vs Arizona: 0.9
Total Yards (L5) +21.9% more
San Francisco: 412.5 vs Arizona: 338.3
First Downs (L5) +14.7% more
San Francisco: 22.2 vs Arizona: 19.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 18.1 24
SF Score 25.7 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.2 / 19.4 22.0 / 19.0
Net Passing Yards 274.1 / 179.3 231.0 / 189.0
Rushing Yards 138.4 / 159.0 153.0 / 169.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.55 / 0.3
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 412.5 / 338.3 384.0 / 358.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 0.9 3.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 6.5 / 5.6 6.1 / 6.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
1%TICKETS99%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -2.8
SF Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +9.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -2.8
SF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +9.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
SF
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
ARI
SF
ARI
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
ATS
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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