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TAMPA BAY

BUCCANEERSTB

2-2  |  Road

30
FINAL
Thu, Oct 3 • 8:15 PM ET
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

FALCONSATL

2-2  |  Home

36
Key Game
Chase McLaughlin
KEY GAME

Chase McLaughlin

#4 | Place kicker
@
Zach Harrison
KEY GAME

Zach Harrison

#96 | Defensive End
Player
Chase McLaughlin None-None
Zach Harrison None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BUCCANEERS
0%
📊
FALCONS
100%
BUCCANEERS --
FALCONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
38.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Tampa Bay)
BuccaneersTB (-3.5) 0 FalconsATL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buccaneers Cover

51.6%

Falcons Cover

48.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around TB -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

TB By 1-6 points

16.6%

TB By 7-13 points

15.8%

ATL By 1-6 points

16.3%

ATL By 7-13 points

14.9%

AI Model Projected Score
19.3
TAMPA BAY
18.74
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
31
TAMPA BAY
17
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Buccaneers Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.6
D
Sim Buccaneers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 38.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 11, 2025 ATL @ TB 29 - 28
Sep 7, 2025 TB @ ATL 23 - 20
Oct 27, 2024 ATL @ TB 31 - 26
Oct 3, 2024 TB @ ATL 30 - 36
Dec 10, 2023 TB @ ATL 29 - 25
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +21.8% more
Tampa Bay: 21.7 vs Atlanta: 16.9
Time of Possession (L5) +10.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.5 vs Atlanta: 0.4
Net Passing Yards (L5) +9.2% more
Tampa Bay: 243.2 vs Atlanta: 220.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.4 vs Atlanta: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 19.3 30
ATL Score 18.7 36
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.9 / 21.7 28.0 / 21.0
Net Passing Yards 220.7 / 243.2 477.0 / 173.0
Rushing Yards 101.1 / 98.0 73.0 / 160.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.43 / 0.55
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 321.8 / 341.2 550.0 / 333.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 0.8 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.9 / 5.4 6.8 / 6.5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
74%MONEY26%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
ATL Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
ATL Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.3
ATL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
TB
ATL
TB
ML
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
100% 4-0
ATS
25% 1-3
33% 1-2-1
0% 0-4
100% 3-0-1
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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