REAL SOCIEDADREAL SOCIEDAD
6-1-4 | Home
1
RAYORAYO
3-3-4 | Away
0
AI Model Win Probability
REAL SOCIEDAD
61%
DRAW
21%
RAYO
18%
▲ Edge: +19.40% (Rayo Vallecano)
54%
Book Odds: -115
DRAW
--
25%
Book Odds: +295
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 2.5
51%
Under 2.5
49%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
REAL SOCIEDAD
Book Goal Line
-0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Real Sociedad)
Soccer Match Statistics
Possession
50.8% / 49.2%
Shots (On Goal)
17(3) / 11(3)
Corners
7 / 6
Cards (Y/R)
2/0 - 2/0
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Real Sociedad -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Real Sociedad)
Real Sociedad By 1 goal
26.1%
Real Sociedad By 2+ goals
36.9%
Rayo Vallecano By 1 goal
11.1%
Rayo Vallecano By 2+ goals
4.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Real Sociedad
2
REAL SOCIEDAD
Book Implied: 1.50
Rayo
1
RAYO
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
Real Sociedad
2
REAL SOCIEDAD
Book Implied: 1.50
Rayo
1
RAYO
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Real Sociedad
55% Win Prob
C
Sim
Real Sociedad
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Real Sociedad (-0.5)
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Real Sociedad (-0.5)
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o2.75
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim
o2.8
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 8, 2026
Real Sociedad vs Rayo
1 - 0
Oct 5, 2025
Real Sociedad vs Rayo
0 - 1
Mar 16, 2025
Rayo vs Real Sociedad
2 - 2
Aug 18, 2024
Real Sociedad vs Rayo
1 - 2
Jan 27, 2024
Real Sociedad vs Rayo
0 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5)
+87.5% more
Real Sociedad: 15.0
vs
Rayo: 8.0
Wins (L5)
+50.0% more
Real Sociedad: 3.0
vs
Rayo: 2.0
Goals Conceded (L5)
+16.7% more
Real Sociedad: 6.0
vs
Rayo: 7.0
Draws (L5)
+100.0% more
Rayo: 2.0
vs
Real Sociedad: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
Rayo Vallecano Score
1.0
0
Real Sociedad Score
2.0
1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Real Sociedad (Home)
vs
Rayo Vallecano (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Book Line: 2.5 Goals
AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
AI Projected Score
2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Real Sociedad
Rayo Vallecano
Real Sociedad
Rayo Vallecano
ML
27%
3-8
50%
5-5
73%
8-3
50%
5-5
ATS
36%
4-7
40%
4-6
73%
8-3
60%
6-4
TTL
27%
3-8
44%
4-5-1
64%
7-4
33%
3-6-1