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MAN UTDMAN UTD

1-5-4  |  Home

4
FINAL
Sun, Nov 8 • 11:30 AM ET
Old Trafford

ASTON VILLAASTON VILLA

3-4-3  |  Away

4
AI Model Win Probability
MAN UTD
61%
DRAW
21%
ASTON VILLA
18%
▲ Edge: +28.70% (Aston Villa)
49% Book Odds: +104
DRAW 25% Book Odds: +300
29% Book Odds: +251
Book Implied: 49% / 25% / 28.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.25
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.3 (Under)
Over 3.25 56%
Under 3.25 44%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
MAN UTD
Book Goal Line
-0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Man Utd)
Man UtdMan Utd (-0.5) 0 Aston VillaAston Villa (+0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

55.7% / 44.3%

Shots (On Goal)

26(9) / 12(6)

Corners

8 / 1

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Manchester United -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Manchester United)

Manchester United By 1 goal

26.1%

Manchester United By 2+ goals

36.9%

Aston Villa By 1 goal

11.1%

Aston Villa By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
MAN UTD
Book Implied: 1.90
1
ASTON VILLA
Book Implied: 1.40
Simulated Score
2
MAN UTD
Book Implied: 1.90
1
ASTON VILLA
Book Implied: 1.40
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Manchester United Loss
43% Win Prob
D
Sim Manchester United Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Manchester United (-0.5)
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Manchester United (-0.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u3.25 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim u3.3 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2026 Man Utd vs Aston Villa 4 - 4
Mar 15, 2026 Man Utd vs Aston Villa 3 - 1
May 25, 2025 Man Utd vs Aston Villa 2 - 0
Oct 6, 2024 Aston Villa vs Man Utd 0 - 0
Feb 11, 2024 Aston Villa vs Man Utd 1 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Aston Villa: 2.0 vs Man Utd: 1.0
Losses (L5) +50.0% more
Aston Villa: 2.0 vs Man Utd: 3.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +33.3% more
Aston Villa: 9.0 vs Man Utd: 12.0
Goals Scored (L5) +20.0% more
Aston Villa: 6.0 vs Man Utd: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Aston Villa Score 1.0 4
Manchester United Score 2.0 4
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Manchester United (Home) vs Aston Villa (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Manchester United Share: 66.7% Aston Villa Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Manchester United
Aston Villa
Manchester United
Aston Villa
ML
30% 3-7
50% 5-5
20% 2-8
20% 2-8
ATS
71% 6-2-1
93% 7-0-2
22% 2-7-1
25% 2-6-2
TTL
53% 5-4
58% 5-4
37% 3-6
40% 4-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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