Home / Premier League Projections Premier League / Sunderland vs Chelsea Sunderland vs Chelsea

SUNDERLANDSUNDERLAND

1-2-6  |  Home

1
FINAL
Sun, Nov 8 • 9:00 AM ET
Stadium of Light

CHELSEACHELSEA

5-1-3  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
SUNDERLAND
61%
DRAW
21%
CHELSEA
18%
▲ Edge: +18.50% (Chelsea)
31% Book Odds: +226
DRAW 28% Book Odds: +255
44% Book Odds: +129
Book Implied: 30.70% / 28.20% / 43.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 2.5 58%
Under 2.5 42%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
SUNDERLAND
Book Goal Line
+0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 goals (Sunderland)
SunderlandSunderland (+0.2) 0 ChelseaChelsea (-0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

31.3% / 68.7%

Shots (On Goal)

9(2) / 10(4)

Corners

2 / 2

Cards (Y/R)

5/0 - 4/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Sunderland -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Sunderland)

Sunderland By 1 goal

26.1%

Sunderland By 2+ goals

36.9%

Chelsea By 1 goal

11.1%

Chelsea By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
SUNDERLAND
Book Implied: 1.10
1
CHELSEA
Book Implied: 1.40
Simulated Score
1
SUNDERLAND
Book Implied: 1.10
2
CHELSEA
Book Implied: 1.40
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Sunderland
38% Win Prob
D
Sim Chelsea
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Sunderland (+0.25)
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Chelsea (-0.25)
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.5
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim o2.5
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2026 Sunderland vs Chelsea 1 - 0
Oct 25, 2025 Chelsea vs Sunderland 1 - 2
May 21, 2017 Chelsea vs Sunderland 5 - 1
Dec 14, 2016 Sunderland vs Chelsea 0 - 1
May 7, 2016 Sunderland vs Chelsea 3 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Sunderland: 2.0 vs Chelsea: 1.0
Wins (L5) +200.0% more
Chelsea: 3.0 vs Sunderland: 1.0
Goals Scored (L5) +100.0% more
Chelsea: 10.0 vs Sunderland: 5.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +100.0% more
Chelsea: 4.0 vs Sunderland: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Chelsea Score 1.0 0
Sunderland Score 2.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Sunderland (Home) vs Chelsea (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Sunderland Share: 66.7% Chelsea Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Sunderland
Chelsea
Sunderland
Chelsea
ML
44% 4-5
56% 5-4
56% 5-4
67% 6-3
ATS
50% 4-4-1
33% 3-6
62% 5-3-1
76% 6-2
TTL
12% 1-7-1
38% 3-5-1
56% 4-3-1
62% 5-3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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