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BRIGHTONBRIGHTON

6-1-2  |  Home

2
FINAL
Sun, Nov 8 • 9:00 AM ET
American Express Stadium

BRENTFORDBRENTFORD

3-5-1  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
BRIGHTON
35%
DRAW
31%
BRENTFORD
35%
▲ Edge: +25.30% (Brentford)
52% Book Odds: -108
DRAW 26% Book Odds: +286
25% Book Odds: +305
Book Implied: 51.90% / 25.90% / 24.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.8 (Under)
Over 2.75 48%
Under 2.75 52%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
BRENTFORD
Book Goal Line
+0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Brentford)
BrightonBrighton (-0.5) 0 BrentfordBrentford (+0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

75.3% / 24.7%

Shots (On Goal)

20(6) / 5(0)

Corners

7 / 3

Cards (Y/R)

4/0 - 2/1

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Brentford 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Brentford)

Brighton & Hove Albion By 1 goal

21.1%

Brighton & Hove Albion By 2+ goals

15.9%

Brentford By 1 goal

21.1%

Brentford By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
BRIGHTON
Book Implied: 1.60
1
BRENTFORD
Book Implied: 1.10
Simulated Score
2
BRIGHTON
Book Implied: 1.60
1
BRENTFORD
Book Implied: 1.10
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw
38% Win Prob
B
Sim Brighton & Hove Albion
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Brentford (+0.5)
Proj Goals: 0.0
C
Sim Brighton & Hove Albion (-0.5)
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u2.75
Proj Total: 2.0
D
Sim o2.8
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2026 Brighton vs Brentford 2 - 0
Feb 21, 2026 Brentford vs Brighton 0 - 2
Nov 22, 2025 Brighton vs Brentford 2 - 1
Apr 19, 2025 Brentford vs Brighton 4 - 2
Dec 27, 2024 Brighton vs Brentford 0 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +100.0% more
Brentford: 8.0 vs Brighton: 4.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +100.0% more
Brighton: 4.0 vs Brentford: 8.0
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Brighton: 2.0 vs Brentford: 1.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Brighton: 1.0 vs Brentford: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Brentford Score 1.0 0
Brighton & Hove Albion Score 1.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Brighton & Hove Albion (Home) vs Brentford (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Brighton & Hove Albion Share: 50.0% Brentford Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Brighton & Hove Albion
Brentford
Brighton & Hove Albion
Brentford
ML
44% 4-5
67% 6-3
56% 5-4
11% 1-8
ATS
41% 3-5
69% 4-2-2
67% 6-3
38% 2-4-2
TTL
53% 4-4
47% 3-4-1
41% 3-5
60% 4-3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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