Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / León vs Guadalajara León vs Guadalajara

LEÓNLEÓN

6-4-5  |  Home

1
FINAL
Sun, Nov 8 • 9:10 PM ET
Estadio León

GUADALAJARAGUADALAJARA

7-5-2  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
LEÓN
35%
DRAW
31%
GUADALAJARA
35%
▲ Edge: +24.40% (León)
26% Book Odds: +291
DRAW 27% Book Odds: +277
51% Book Odds: -104
Book Implied: 25.60% / 26.50% / 51%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.8 (Under)
Over 2.75 46%
Under 2.75 54%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
LEÓN
Book Goal Line
+0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (León)
LeónLeón (+0.5) 0 GuadalajaraGuadalajara (-0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

33.3% / 66.7%

Shots (On Goal)

8(5) / 18(6)

Corners

2 / 6

Cards (Y/R)

2/1 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around León 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (León)

León By 1 goal

21.1%

León By 2+ goals

15.9%

Guadalajara By 1 goal

21.1%

Guadalajara By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
LEÓN
Book Implied: 1.10
1
GUADALAJARA
Book Implied: 1.60
Simulated Score
1
LEÓN
Book Implied: 1.10
2
GUADALAJARA
Book Implied: 1.60
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw
37% Win Prob
B
Sim Guadalajara
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI León (+0.5)
Proj Goals: 0.0
C
Sim Guadalajara (-0.5)
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u2.75
Proj Total: 2.0
D
Sim o2.8
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2026 León vs Guadalajara 1 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +200.0% more
Guadalajara: 3.0 vs León: 1.0
Losses (L5) +200.0% more
Guadalajara: 0.0 vs León: 2.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +166.7% more
Guadalajara: 3.0 vs León: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Guadalajara Score 1.0 1
León Score 1.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
León (Home) vs Guadalajara (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
León Share: 50.0% Guadalajara Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
León
Guadalajara
León
Guadalajara
ML
50% 6-6
50% 6-6
33% 4-8
50% 6-6
ATS
65% 5-3-3
70% 7-3-2
38% 3-5-4
40% 4-6-2
TTL
36% 4-7-1
68% 7-3-1
45% 5-6-1
36% 4-7-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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