Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Queretaro vs Puebla Queretaro vs Puebla

QUERETAROQUERETARO

6-2-6  |  Home

0
FINAL
Sun, Nov 8 • 7:00 PM ET
Estadio Corregidora

PUEBLAPUEBLA

4-4-7  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
QUERETARO
61%
DRAW
21%
PUEBLA
18%
▲ Edge: +37% (Puebla)
55% Book Odds: -124
DRAW 26% Book Odds: +292
23% Book Odds: +344
Book Implied: 55.40% / 25.50% / 22.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 60%
Under 2.75 40%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
QUERETARO
Book Goal Line
-0.75
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (Queretaro)
QueretaroQueretaro (-0.8) 0 PueblaPuebla (+0.8)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

56.5% / 43.5%

Shots (On Goal)

21(5) / 9(3)

Corners

9 / 0

Cards (Y/R)

3/0 - 3/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Querétaro -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Querétaro)

Querétaro By 1 goal

26.1%

Querétaro By 2+ goals

36.9%

Puebla By 1 goal

11.1%

Puebla By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
QUERETARO
Book Implied: 1.80
1
PUEBLA
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
2
QUERETARO
Book Implied: 1.80
1
PUEBLA
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Querétaro
41% Win Prob
D
Sim Querétaro
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Querétaro (-0.75)
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Querétaro (-0.75)
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.75
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim o2.8
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2026 Queretaro vs Puebla 0 - 2
Apr 24, 2026 Puebla vs Queretaro 1 - 2
Oct 4, 2025 Queretaro vs Puebla 3 - 1
Mar 2, 2025 Queretaro vs Puebla 2 - 0
Sep 13, 2024 Puebla vs Queretaro 2 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Puebla: 1.0 vs Queretaro: 0.0
Goals Scored (L5) +66.7% more
Puebla: 5.0 vs Queretaro: 3.0
Losses (L5) +33.3% more
Puebla: 3.0 vs Queretaro: 4.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +30.0% more
Puebla: 10.0 vs Queretaro: 13.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Puebla Score 1.0 2
Querétaro Score 2.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Querétaro (Home) vs Puebla (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Querétaro Share: 66.7% Puebla Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Querétaro
Puebla
Querétaro
Puebla
ML
45% 5-6
33% 4-8
36% 4-7
58% 7-5
ATS
50% 5-5-1
72% 6-2-3
40% 4-6-1
71% 6-2-3
TTL
68% 6-3-1
26% 3-8
58% 5-4-1
48% 5-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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