Home / Premier League Projections Premier League / Liverpool vs Arsenal Liverpool vs Arsenal

LIVERPOOLLIVERPOOL

4-3-2  |  Home

0
FINAL
Sun, Nov 1 • 11:30 AM ET
Anfield

ARSENALARSENAL

8-0-1  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
LIVERPOOL
35%
DRAW
31%
ARSENAL
35%
▲ Edge: +7.60% (Arsenal)
31% Book Odds: +221
DRAW 29% Book Odds: +244
42% Book Odds: +136
Book Implied: 31.20% / 29.10% / 42.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.8 (Under)
Over 2.75 47%
Under 2.75 53%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
LIVERPOOL
Book Goal Line
+0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (Liverpool)
LiverpoolLiverpool (+0.2) 0 ArsenalArsenal (-0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

56.4% / 43.6%

Shots (On Goal)

17(0) / 10(3)

Corners

7 / 4

Cards (Y/R)

4/0 - 4/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Liverpool 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Liverpool)

Liverpool By 1 goal

21.1%

Liverpool By 2+ goals

15.9%

Arsenal By 1 goal

21.1%

Arsenal By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
LIVERPOOL
Book Implied: 1.20
1
ARSENAL
Book Implied: 1.50
Simulated Score
1
LIVERPOOL
Book Implied: 1.20
2
ARSENAL
Book Implied: 1.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw Loss
40% Win Prob
A
Sim Arsenal Win
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Liverpool (+0.25) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
D
Sim Arsenal (-0.25) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u2.75 Win
Proj Total: 2.0
D
Sim o2.8 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 1, 2026 Liverpool vs Arsenal 0 - 1
Jan 8, 2026 Arsenal vs Liverpool 0 - 0
Aug 31, 2025 Liverpool vs Arsenal 1 - 0
May 11, 2025 Liverpool vs Arsenal 2 - 2
Oct 27, 2024 Arsenal vs Liverpool 2 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Goals Conceded (L5) +166.7% more
Arsenal: 3.0 vs Liverpool: 8.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Arsenal: 2.0 vs Liverpool: 1.0
Goals Scored (L5) +66.7% more
Liverpool: 15.0 vs Arsenal: 9.0
Wins (L5) +33.3% more
Liverpool: 4.0 vs Arsenal: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Arsenal Score 1.0 1
Liverpool Score 1.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Liverpool (Home) vs Arsenal (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Liverpool Share: 50.0% Arsenal Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Liverpool
Arsenal
Liverpool
Arsenal
ML
33% 3-6
67% 6-3
56% 5-4
89% 8-1
ATS
89% 8-1
40% 3-4-1
67% 6-3
75% 4-1-3
TTL
60% 4-3-1
46% 3-3-2
47% 3-4-1
38% 2-4-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
No relevant news articles found for this game.