Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Athletic vs Real Sociedad Athletic vs Real Sociedad

ATHLETICATHLETIC

3-3-3  |  Home

2
FINAL
Sun, Nov 1 • 3:00 PM ET
San Mamés

REAL SOCIEDADREAL SOCIEDAD

6-1-3  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETIC
61%
DRAW
21%
REAL SOCIEDAD
18%
▲ Edge: +26.90% (Real Sociedad)
51% Book Odds: -105
DRAW --
27% Book Odds: +275
Book Implied: 51.20% / % / 26.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 2.5 52%
Under 2.5 48%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
ATHLETIC
Book Goal Line
-0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Athletic)
AthleticAthletic (-0.5) 0 Real SociedadReal Sociedad (+0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

38.0% / 62.0%

Shots (On Goal)

13(3) / 14(5)

Corners

5 / 8

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 3/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Athletic Club -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Athletic Club)

Athletic Club By 1 goal

26.1%

Athletic Club By 2+ goals

36.9%

Real Sociedad By 1 goal

11.1%

Real Sociedad By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
ATHLETIC
Book Implied: 1.50
1
REAL SOCIEDAD
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
2
ATHLETIC
Book Implied: 1.50
1
REAL SOCIEDAD
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Athletic Club
46% Win Prob
D
Sim Athletic Club
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Athletic Club (-0.5)
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Athletic Club (-0.5)
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.75
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim o2.8
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 1, 2026 Athletic vs Real Sociedad 2 - 1
Feb 1, 2026 Athletic vs Real Sociedad 1 - 1
Nov 1, 2025 Real Sociedad vs Athletic 3 - 2
May 4, 2025 Real Sociedad vs Athletic 0 - 0
Nov 24, 2024 Athletic vs Real Sociedad 1 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Athletic: 2.0 vs Real Sociedad: 1.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +50.0% more
Athletic: 4.0 vs Real Sociedad: 6.0
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Real Sociedad: 4.0 vs Athletic: 2.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Real Sociedad: 0.0 vs Athletic: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Real Sociedad Score 1.0 1
Athletic Club Score 2.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Athletic Club (Home) vs Real Sociedad (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Athletic Club Share: 66.7% Real Sociedad Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Athletic Club
Real Sociedad
Athletic Club
Real Sociedad
ML
78% 7-2
20% 2-8
22% 2-7
70% 7-3
ATS
56% 5-4
40% 4-6
33% 3-6
70% 7-3
TTL
67% 6-3
20% 2-8
67% 6-3
60% 6-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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