Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Elche vs Valencia Elche vs Valencia

ELCHEELCHE

2-4-5  |  Home

0
FINAL
Sun, Nov 1 • 12:30 PM ET
Estadio Martínez Valero

VALENCIAVALENCIA

2-3-6  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
ELCHE
61%
DRAW
21%
VALENCIA
18%
▲ Edge: +12.80% (Valencia)
44% Book Odds: +130
DRAW --
31% Book Odds: +220
Book Implied: 43.50% / % / 31.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 2.5 52%
Under 2.5 48%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
ELCHE
Book Goal Line
-0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Elche)
ElcheElche (-0.5) 0 ValenciaValencia (+0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

69.1% / 30.9%

Shots (On Goal)

16(3) / 5(3)

Corners

6 / 2

Cards (Y/R)

3/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Elche -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Elche)

Elche By 1 goal

26.1%

Elche By 2+ goals

36.9%

Valencia By 1 goal

11.1%

Valencia By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
ELCHE
Book Implied: 1.50
1
VALENCIA
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
1
ELCHE
Book Implied: 1.50
1
VALENCIA
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Elche
56% Win Prob
C
Sim Draw
29% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Elche (-0.25)
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Valencia (+0.25)
Proj Goals: 0.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o2.5
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim u2.5
Proj Total: 2.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 1, 2026 Elche vs Valencia 0 - 1
Apr 11, 2026 Elche vs Valencia 1 - 0
Jan 10, 2026 Valencia vs Elche 1 - 1
Apr 23, 2023 Elche vs Valencia 0 - 2
Oct 15, 2022 Valencia vs Elche 2 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Goals Conceded (L5) +250.0% more
Elche: 2.0 vs Valencia: 7.0
Wins (L5) +200.0% more
Elche: 3.0 vs Valencia: 1.0
Losses (L5) +200.0% more
Elche: 0.0 vs Valencia: 2.0
Goals Scored (L5) +50.0% more
Elche: 9.0 vs Valencia: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Valencia Score 1.0 1
Elche Score 2.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Elche (Home) vs Valencia (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Elche Share: 66.7% Valencia Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Elche
Valencia
Elche
Valencia
ML
40% 4-6
70% 7-3
30% 3-7
30% 3-7
ATS
80% 8-2
84% 8-1
50% 5-5
47% 4-5
TTL
60% 6-4
40% 4-6
80% 8-2
60% 6-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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