Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Cruz Azul vs León Cruz Azul vs León

CRUZ AZULCRUZ AZUL

8-2-4  |  Home

2
FINAL
Sun, Nov 1 • 8:10 PM ET
Estadio Banorte

LEÓNLEÓN

6-4-4  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
CRUZ AZUL
78%
DRAW
13%
LEÓN
9%
▲ Edge: +15.20% (León)
57% Book Odds: -134
DRAW 25% Book Odds: +303
21% Book Odds: +370
Book Implied: 57.30% / 24.80% / 21.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 79%
Under 2.75 21%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-2.0
CRUZ AZUL
Book Goal Line
-0.75
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 goals (Cruz Azul)
Cruz AzulCruz Azul (-0.8) 0 LeónLeón (+0.8)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

47.9% / 52.1%

Shots (On Goal)

15(5) / 16(4)

Corners

4 / 6

Cards (Y/R)

4/0 - 5/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

90.9%

Cover

9.1%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Cruz Azul -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Cruz Azul)

Cruz Azul By 1 goal

21.1%

Cruz Azul By 2+ goals

63.1%

León By 1 goal

3.8%

León By 2+ goals

1.0%

AI Model Projected Score
3
CRUZ AZUL
Book Implied: 1.80
1
LEÓN
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
2
CRUZ AZUL
Book Implied: 1.80
1
LEÓN
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cruz Azul Win
63% Win Prob
C
Sim Cruz Azul Win
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cruz Azul (-0.75) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Sim Cruz Azul (-0.75)
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.75
Proj Total: 4.0
A
Sim o2.8
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 1, 2026 Cruz Azul vs León 2 - 1
Feb 28, 2026 León vs Cruz Azul 0 - 2
Jan 10, 2026 León vs Cruz Azul 2 - 1
Oct 25, 2025 Cruz Azul vs León 2 - 0
Jul 26, 2025 Cruz Azul vs León 4 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +200.0% more
Cruz Azul: 3.0 vs León: 1.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Cruz Azul: 0.0 vs León: 1.0
Goals Scored (L5) +85.7% more
Cruz Azul: 13.0 vs León: 7.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +40.0% more
Cruz Azul: 5.0 vs León: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
León Score 1.0 1
Cruz Azul Score 3.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 77.5% Draw: 13.1% Away Win: 9.4%
Cruz Azul (Home) vs León (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 76.2% Under 2.5: 23.8%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 4.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Cruz Azul Share: 75.0% León Share: 25.0%
AI Projected Score 3.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Cruz Azul
León
Cruz Azul
León
ML
67% 10-5
40% 6-9
60% 9-6
33% 5-10
ATS
50% 7-7-1
65% 7-4-3
56% 7-6-1
36% 4-7-4
TTL
44% 5-7-2
43% 6-8-1
56% 7-6-1
50% 7-7-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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