Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Santos vs Necaxa Santos vs Necaxa

SANTOSSANTOS

6-1-7  |  Home

1
FINAL
Sun, Nov 1 • 6:00 PM ET
Estadio Corona

NECAXANECAXA

2-4-8  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
SANTOS
61%
DRAW
21%
NECAXA
18%
▲ Edge: +22.70% (Necaxa)
54% Book Odds: -117
DRAW 24% Book Odds: +312
25% Book Odds: +299
Book Implied: 53.90% / 24.30% / 25.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.25
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.3 (Under)
Over 3.25 32%
Under 3.25 68%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
SANTOS
Book Goal Line
-0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Santos)
SantosSantos (-0.5) 0 NecaxaNecaxa (+0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

49.5% / 50.5%

Shots (On Goal)

6(3) / 21(8)

Corners

12 / 6

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 3/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Santos -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Santos)

Santos By 1 goal

26.1%

Santos By 2+ goals

36.9%

Necaxa By 1 goal

11.1%

Necaxa By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
SANTOS
Book Implied: 1.90
1
NECAXA
Book Implied: 1.40
Simulated Score
2
SANTOS
Book Implied: 1.90
1
NECAXA
Book Implied: 1.40
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Santos Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Santos Win
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Santos (-0.5)
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Santos (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u3.25 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
B
Sim u3.3 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 1, 2026 Santos vs Necaxa 1 - 0
Apr 11, 2026 Necaxa vs Santos 4 - 2
Jan 10, 2026 Santos vs Necaxa 1 - 3
Nov 9, 2025 Santos vs Necaxa 1 - 0
Oct 31, 2025 Necaxa vs Santos 4 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +400.0% more
Santos: 4.0 vs Necaxa: 0.0
Losses (L5) +200.0% more
Santos: 1.0 vs Necaxa: 3.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +120.0% more
Santos: 5.0 vs Necaxa: 11.0
Goals Scored (L5) +83.3% more
Santos: 11.0 vs Necaxa: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Necaxa Score 1.0 0
Santos Score 2.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Santos (Home) vs Necaxa (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Santos Share: 66.7% Necaxa Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Santos
Necaxa
Santos
Necaxa
ML
53% 8-7
47% 7-8
73% 11-4
53% 8-7
ATS
37% 5-8-1
55% 8-6
71% 10-4-1
60% 9-6
TTL
68% 9-4-1
60% 9-6
57% 8-6-1
87% 13-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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