Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Barcelona vs Alavés Barcelona vs Alavés

BARCELONABARCELONA

9-0-1  |  Home

6
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 4:00 PM ET
Spotify Camp Nou

ALAVÉSALAVÉS

3-3-4  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
BARCELONA
78%
DRAW
13%
ALAVÉS
9%
▲ Edge: +16.60% (Alavés)
91% Book Odds: -1000
DRAW 8% Book Odds: +1150
4% Book Odds: +2300
Book Implied: 90.90% / 8% / 4.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
4.25
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.3 (Under)
Over 4.25 47%
Under 4.25 53%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+2.0
ALAVÉS
Book Goal Line
+2.75
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 goals (Alavés)
BarcelonaBarcelona (-2.8) 0 AlavésAlavés (+2.8)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

77.1% / 22.9%

Shots (On Goal)

13(7) / 7(3)

Corners

4 / 3

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 3/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

90.9%

Cover

9.1%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Alavés +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Alavés)

Barcelona By 1 goal

21.1%

Barcelona By 2+ goals

63.1%

Alavés By 1 goal

3.8%

Alavés By 2+ goals

1.0%

AI Model Projected Score
3
BARCELONA
Book Implied: 3.50
1
ALAVÉS
Book Implied: 0.80
Simulated Score
4
BARCELONA
Book Implied: 3.50
0
ALAVÉS
Book Implied: 0.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Barcelona Win
79% Win Prob
A
Sim Barcelona Win
99% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Alavés (+2.75) Loss
Proj Goals: +2.0
C
Sim Barcelona (-2.75) Win
Proj Goals: -4.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u4.25 Loss
Proj Total: 4.0
D
Sim u4.3 Loss
Proj Total: 4.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 Barcelona vs Alavés 6 - 1
Nov 29, 2025 Barcelona vs Alavés 3 - 1
Feb 2, 2025 Barcelona vs Alavés 1 - 0
Oct 6, 2024 Alavés vs Barcelona 0 - 3
Feb 3, 2024 Alavés vs Barcelona 1 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +400.0% more
Barcelona: 15.0 vs Alavés: 3.0
Wins (L5) +300.0% more
Barcelona: 3.0 vs Alavés: 0.0
Losses (L5) +50.0% more
Barcelona: 2.0 vs Alavés: 3.0
Draws (L5) +200.0% more
Alavés: 2.0 vs Barcelona: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Alavés Score 1.0 1
Barcelona Score 3.0 6
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 77.5% Draw: 13.1% Away Win: 9.4%
Barcelona (Home) vs Alavés (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 76.2% Under 2.5: 23.8%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 4.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Barcelona Share: 75.0% Alavés Share: 25.0%
AI Projected Score 3.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Barcelona
Alavés
Barcelona
Alavés
ML
91% 10-1
45% 5-6
91% 10-1
55% 6-5
ATS
36% 4-7
64% 7-4
91% 10-1
71% 7-3
TTL
18% 2-9
47% 4-5-1
45% 5-6
22% 2-7-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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