Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Rayo vs Celta Vigo Rayo vs Celta Vigo

RAYORAYO

2-3-4  |  Home

3
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 11:15 AM ET
Estadio de Vallecas

CELTA VIGOCELTA VIGO

2-6-2  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
RAYO
61%
DRAW
21%
CELTA VIGO
18%
▲ Edge: +16.60% (Celta Vigo)
42% Book Odds: +140
DRAW --
31% Book Odds: +220
Book Implied: 41.70% / % / 31.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 2.5 56%
Under 2.5 44%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
RAYO
Book Goal Line
-0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Rayo)
RayoRayo (-0.5) 0 Celta VigoCelta Vigo (+0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

52.6% / 47.4%

Shots (On Goal)

14(8) / 11(0)

Corners

4 / 3

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Rayo Vallecano -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Rayo Vallecano)

Rayo Vallecano By 1 goal

26.1%

Rayo Vallecano By 2+ goals

36.9%

Celta Vigo By 1 goal

11.1%

Celta Vigo By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
RAYO
Book Implied: 1.50
1
CELTA VIGO
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
1
RAYO
Book Implied: 1.50
0
CELTA VIGO
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rayo Vallecano Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Rayo Vallecano Win
54% Win Prob
D
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rayo Vallecano (-0.25) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Rayo Vallecano (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o2.25 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim u2.5 Loss
Proj Total: 1.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 Rayo vs Celta Vigo 3 - 0
Jan 18, 2026 Celta Vigo vs Rayo 3 - 0
Sep 21, 2025 Rayo vs Celta Vigo 1 - 1
May 18, 2025 Celta Vigo vs Rayo 1 - 2
Jan 10, 2025 Rayo vs Celta Vigo 2 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +40.0% more
Rayo: 7.0 vs Celta Vigo: 5.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +100.0% more
Celta Vigo: 4.0 vs Rayo: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Celta Vigo Score 1.0 0
Rayo Vallecano Score 2.0 3
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Rayo Vallecano (Home) vs Celta Vigo (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Rayo Vallecano Share: 66.7% Celta Vigo Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Rayo Vallecano
Celta Vigo
Rayo Vallecano
Celta Vigo
ML
50% 5-5
55% 6-5
50% 5-5
27% 3-8
ATS
40% 4-6
29% 3-7
60% 6-4
36% 4-7
TTL
44% 4-5-1
64% 7-4
33% 3-6-1
36% 4-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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