VILLARREALVILLARREAL
3-3-4 | Home
0
ESPANYOLESPANYOL
2-2-6 | Away
1
AI Model Win Probability
VILLARREAL
78%
DRAW
13%
ESPANYOL
9%
▲ Edge: +10.90% (Espanyol)
73%
Book Odds: -265
DRAW
--
13%
Book Odds: +650
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
3.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 3.5
54%
Under 3.5
46%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-2.0
VILLARREAL
Book Goal Line
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Villarreal)
Soccer Match Statistics
Possession
62.8% / 37.2%
Shots (On Goal)
14(4) / 5(3)
Corners
7 / 3
Cards (Y/R)
3/0 - 3/0
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Villarreal -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Villarreal)
Villarreal By 1 goal
21.1%
Villarreal By 2+ goals
63.1%
Espanyol By 1 goal
3.8%
Espanyol By 2+ goals
1.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Villarreal
3
VILLARREAL
Book Implied: 2.50
Espanyol
1
ESPANYOL
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
Villarreal
3
VILLARREAL
Book Implied: 2.50
Espanyol
0
ESPANYOL
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Villarreal
Loss
76% Win Prob
A
Sim
Villarreal
Loss
94% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Villarreal (-1.25)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Sim
Villarreal (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o3.25
Loss
Proj Total: 4.0
D
Sim
u3.5
Win
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 30, 2026
Villarreal vs Espanyol
0 - 1
Feb 9, 2026
Villarreal vs Espanyol
4 - 1
Nov 8, 2025
Espanyol vs Villarreal
0 - 2
Apr 27, 2025
Villarreal vs Espanyol
1 - 0
Sep 26, 2024
Espanyol vs Villarreal
1 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5)
+300.0% more
Villarreal: 3.0
vs
Espanyol: 0.0
Losses (L5)
+300.0% more
Villarreal: 1.0
vs
Espanyol: 4.0
Goals Scored (L5)
+116.7% more
Villarreal: 13.0
vs
Espanyol: 6.0
Goals Conceded (L5)
+83.3% more
Villarreal: 6.0
vs
Espanyol: 11.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
Espanyol Score
1.0
1
Villarreal Score
3.0
0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Villarreal (Home)
vs
Espanyol (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Book Line: 2.5 Goals
AI Predicted TTL: 4.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
AI Projected Score
3.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Villarreal
Espanyol
Villarreal
Espanyol
ML
36%
4-7
55%
6-5
36%
4-7
45%
5-6
ATS
73%
8-3
60%
6-4-1
27%
3-8
40%
4-6-1
TTL
64%
7-4
33%
3-6-1
45%
5-6
56%
5-4-1