Home / Premier League Projections Premier League / Aston Villa vs Fulham Aston Villa vs Fulham

ASTON VILLAASTON VILLA

3-2-3  |  Home

1
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 4:00 PM ET
Villa Park

FULHAMFULHAM

2-2-4  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
ASTON VILLA
35%
DRAW
31%
FULHAM
35%
▲ Edge: +24% (Fulham)
50% Book Odds: +101
DRAW 27% Book Odds: +272
26% Book Odds: +285
Book Implied: 49.80% / 26.90% / 26%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.8 (Under)
Over 2.75 47%
Under 2.75 53%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
FULHAM
Book Goal Line
+0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Fulham)
Aston VillaAston Villa (-0.5) 0 FulhamFulham (+0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

45.0% / 55.0%

Shots (On Goal)

16(3) / 14(5)

Corners

7 / 7

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 3/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Fulham 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Fulham)

Aston Villa By 1 goal

21.1%

Aston Villa By 2+ goals

15.9%

Fulham By 1 goal

21.1%

Fulham By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
ASTON VILLA
Book Implied: 1.60
1
FULHAM
Book Implied: 1.10
Simulated Score
2
ASTON VILLA
Book Implied: 1.60
1
FULHAM
Book Implied: 1.10
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw Win
38% Win Prob
D
Sim Aston Villa Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Fulham (+0.5) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
C
Sim Aston Villa (-0.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u2.75 Win
Proj Total: 2.0
D
Sim o2.8 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 Aston Villa vs Fulham 1 - 1
Sep 28, 2025 Aston Villa vs Fulham 3 - 1
May 3, 2025 Aston Villa vs Fulham 1 - 0
Oct 19, 2024 Fulham vs Aston Villa 1 - 3
Feb 17, 2024 Fulham vs Aston Villa 1 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Fulham: 1.0 vs Aston Villa: 0.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +25.0% more
Fulham: 4.0 vs Aston Villa: 5.0
Goals Scored (L5) +200.0% more
Aston Villa: 12.0 vs Fulham: 4.0
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Aston Villa: 4.0 vs Fulham: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Fulham Score 1.0 1
Aston Villa Score 1.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Aston Villa (Home) vs Fulham (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Aston Villa Share: 50.0% Fulham Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Aston Villa
Fulham
Aston Villa
Fulham
ML
56% 5-4
56% 5-4
22% 2-7
44% 4-5
ATS
100% 7-0-2
59% 5-3
29% 2-5-2
41% 3-5
TTL
65% 5-3
65% 5-3
44% 4-5
41% 3-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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