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MAN CITYMAN CITY

7-0-2  |  Home

0
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 11:00 AM ET
Etihad Stadium

BRIGHTONBRIGHTON

5-1-2  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
MAN CITY
61%
DRAW
21%
BRIGHTON
18%
▲ Edge: +17.90% (Brighton & Hove Albion)
56% Book Odds: -126
DRAW 24% Book Odds: +316
23% Book Odds: +329
Book Implied: 55.80% / 24% / 23.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.25
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.3 (Under)
Over 3.25 39%
Under 3.25 61%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
MAN CITY
Book Goal Line
-0.75
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (Man City)
Man CityMan City (-0.8) 0 BrightonBrighton (+0.8)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

62.4% / 37.6%

Shots (On Goal)

21(6) / 7(3)

Corners

8 / 2

Cards (Y/R)

0/0 - 3/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Manchester City -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Manchester City)

Manchester City By 1 goal

26.1%

Manchester City By 2+ goals

36.9%

Brighton & Hove Albion By 1 goal

11.1%

Brighton & Hove Albion By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
MAN CITY
Book Implied: 2
1
BRIGHTON
Book Implied: 1.20
Simulated Score
3
MAN CITY
Book Implied: 2
1
BRIGHTON
Book Implied: 1.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Manchester City
59% Win Prob
C
Sim Manchester City
83% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Manchester City (-0.75)
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Manchester City (-0.75)
Proj Goals: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u3.25
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim o3.3
Proj Total: 4.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 Man City vs Brighton 0 - 1
Jan 7, 2026 Man City vs Brighton 1 - 1
Aug 31, 2025 Brighton vs Man City 2 - 1
Mar 15, 2025 Man City vs Brighton 2 - 2
Nov 9, 2024 Brighton vs Man City 2 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +18.2% more
Man City: 13.0 vs Brighton: 11.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +175.0% more
Brighton: 4.0 vs Man City: 11.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Brighton: 2.0 vs Man City: 1.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Brighton: 1.0 vs Man City: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Brighton & Hove Albion Score 1.0 1
Manchester City Score 2.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Manchester City (Home) vs Brighton & Hove Albion (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Manchester City Share: 66.7% Brighton & Hove Albion Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Manchester City
Brighton & Hove Albion
Manchester City
Brighton & Hove Albion
ML
88% 7-1
50% 4-4
62% 5-3
62% 5-3
ATS
62% 5-3
38% 3-5
50% 4-4
75% 6-2
TTL
60% 3-2-1
43% 3-4
83% 5-1-1
43% 3-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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