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BOURNEMOUTHBOURNEMOUTH

2-3-3  |  Home

2
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 11:00 AM ET
Vitality Stadium

LEEDSLEEDS

2-5-1  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
BOURNEMOUTH
61%
DRAW
21%
LEEDS
18%
▲ Edge: +11.40% (Leeds United)
48% Book Odds: +107
DRAW 29% Book Odds: +245
25% Book Odds: +295
Book Implied: 48.30% / 29% / 25.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 2.5 65%
Under 2.5 35%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
BOURNEMOUTH
Book Goal Line
-0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Bournemouth)
BournemouthBournemouth (-0.5) 0 LeedsLeeds (+0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

43.9% / 56.1%

Shots (On Goal)

11(5) / 10(1)

Corners

4 / 4

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around AFC Bournemouth -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AFC Bournemouth)

AFC Bournemouth By 1 goal

26.1%

AFC Bournemouth By 2+ goals

36.9%

Leeds United By 1 goal

11.1%

Leeds United By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
BOURNEMOUTH
Book Implied: 1.50
1
LEEDS
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
2
BOURNEMOUTH
Book Implied: 1.50
1
LEEDS
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI AFC Bournemouth
63% Win Prob
C
Sim AFC Bournemouth
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI AFC Bournemouth (-0.5)
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim AFC Bournemouth (-0.5)
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.5
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim o2.5
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 Bournemouth vs Leeds 2 - 0
Sep 27, 2025 Leeds vs Bournemouth 2 - 2
Apr 30, 2023 Bournemouth vs Leeds 4 - 1
Nov 5, 2022 Leeds vs Bournemouth 4 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Goals Conceded (L5) +400.0% more
Bournemouth: 0.0 vs Leeds: 4.0
Wins (L5) +400.0% more
Bournemouth: 5.0 vs Leeds: 1.0
Goals Scored (L5) +133.3% more
Bournemouth: 14.0 vs Leeds: 6.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Bournemouth: 0.0 vs Leeds: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Leeds United Score 1.0 0
AFC Bournemouth Score 2.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
AFC Bournemouth (Home) vs Leeds United (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
AFC Bournemouth Share: 66.7% Leeds United Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AFC Bournemouth
Leeds United
AFC Bournemouth
Leeds United
ML
75% 6-2
38% 3-5
38% 3-5
25% 2-6
ATS
67% 4-2
0% 0-4-3
50% 3-3
25% 1-3-3
TTL
60% 3-2-1
25% 2-6
60% 3-2-1
38% 3-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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