Home / Premier League Projections Premier League / Chelsea vs Man Utd Chelsea vs Man Utd

CHELSEACHELSEA

4-1-3  |  Home

2
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 8:30 AM ET
Stamford Bridge

MAN UTDMAN UTD

1-4-3  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
CHELSEA
61%
DRAW
21%
MAN UTD
18%
▲ Edge: +13% (Manchester United)
44% Book Odds: +128
DRAW 27% Book Odds: +271
32% Book Odds: +215
Book Implied: 43.90% / 27% / 31.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.0
Over / Under Line
Over 3.0 53%
Under 3.0 47%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
CHELSEA
Book Goal Line
-0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 goals (Chelsea)
ChelseaChelsea (-0.2) 0 Man UtdMan Utd (+0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

58.7% / 41.3%

Shots (On Goal)

18(9) / 12(5)

Corners

8 / 7

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 4/1

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Chelsea -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Chelsea)

Chelsea By 1 goal

26.1%

Chelsea By 2+ goals

36.9%

Manchester United By 1 goal

11.1%

Manchester United By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
CHELSEA
Book Implied: 1.60
1
MAN UTD
Book Implied: 1.40
Simulated Score
2
CHELSEA
Book Implied: 1.60
1
MAN UTD
Book Implied: 1.40
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Chelsea
55% Win Prob
C
Sim Chelsea
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Chelsea (-0.25)
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim Chelsea (-0.25)
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u3.0
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim u3.0
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 Chelsea vs Man Utd 2 - 0
Sep 20, 2025 Man Utd vs Chelsea 2 - 1
May 16, 2025 Chelsea vs Man Utd 1 - 0
Nov 3, 2024 Man Utd vs Chelsea 1 - 1
Apr 4, 2024 Chelsea vs Man Utd 4 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +200.0% more
Chelsea: 2.0 vs Man Utd: 0.0
Goals Scored (L5) +166.7% more
Chelsea: 8.0 vs Man Utd: 3.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +57.1% more
Chelsea: 7.0 vs Man Utd: 11.0
Losses (L5) +50.0% more
Chelsea: 2.0 vs Man Utd: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Manchester United Score 1.0 0
Chelsea Score 2.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Chelsea (Home) vs Manchester United (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Chelsea Share: 66.7% Manchester United Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Chelsea
Manchester United
Chelsea
Manchester United
ML
50% 4-4
25% 2-6
62% 5-3
12% 1-7
ATS
38% 3-5
86% 6-1-1
73% 5-2
14% 1-6-1
TTL
29% 2-5-1
57% 4-3
57% 4-3-1
29% 2-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
No relevant news articles found for this game.