Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / América vs Toluca América vs Toluca

AMÉRICAAMÉRICA

8-4-2  |  Home

2
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 11:10 PM ET
Estadio Banorte

TOLUCATOLUCA

6-5-3  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
AMÉRICA
61%
DRAW
21%
TOLUCA
18%
▲ Edge: +13.40% (Toluca)
44% Book Odds: +125
DRAW 27% Book Odds: +278
32% Book Odds: +211
Book Implied: 44.40% / 26.50% / 32.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.25
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.3 (Under)
Over 3.25 60%
Under 3.25 40%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
AMÉRICA
Book Goal Line
-0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 goals (América)
AméricaAmérica (-0.2) 0 TolucaToluca (+0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

53.5% / 46.5%

Shots (On Goal)

15(5) / 17(7)

Corners

6 / 5

Cards (Y/R)

3/1 - 1/1

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around América -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (América)

América By 1 goal

26.1%

América By 2+ goals

36.9%

Toluca By 1 goal

11.1%

Toluca By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
AMÉRICA
Book Implied: 1.80
1
TOLUCA
Book Implied: 1.50
Simulated Score
2
AMÉRICA
Book Implied: 1.80
1
TOLUCA
Book Implied: 1.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI América
54% Win Prob
D
Sim América
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI América (-0.25)
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim América (-0.25)
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u3.25
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim u3.3
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 América vs Toluca 2 - 2
Apr 18, 2026 América vs Toluca 2 - 1
Nov 8, 2025 Toluca vs América 2 - 0
May 25, 2025 Toluca vs América 2 - 0
May 22, 2025 América vs Toluca 0 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +200.0% more
América: 2.0 vs Toluca: 0.0
Goals Scored (L5) +44.4% more
América: 13.0 vs Toluca: 9.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +11.1% more
América: 9.0 vs Toluca: 10.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Toluca: 4.0 vs América: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Toluca Score 1.0 2
América Score 2.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
América (Home) vs Toluca (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
América Share: 66.7% Toluca Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
América
Toluca
América
Toluca
ML
43% 6-8
43% 6-8
64% 9-5
43% 6-8
ATS
54% 7-6-1
58% 7-5-2
75% 9-3-2
75% 9-3-2
TTL
54% 7-6-1
38% 5-8-1
77% 10-3-1
64% 8-4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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