Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Guadalajara vs Atlante Guadalajara vs Atlante

GUADALAJARAGUADALAJARA

7-5-2  |  Home

4
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 9:07 PM ET
Estadio Akron

ATLANTEATLANTE

3-5-6  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
GUADALAJARA
61%
DRAW
21%
ATLANTE
18%
▲ Edge: +35% (Atlante)
71% Book Odds: -243
DRAW 20% Book Odds: +411
13% Book Odds: +664
Book Implied: 70.80% / 19.60% / 13.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.0
Over / Under Line
Over 3.0 61%
Under 3.0 39%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+1.0
ATLANTE
Book Goal Line
+1.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (Atlante)
GuadalajaraGuadalajara (-1.2) 0 AtlanteAtlante (+1.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

52.5% / 47.5%

Shots (On Goal)

15(7) / 8(4)

Corners

6 / 4

Cards (Y/R)

0/0 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Atlante +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Atlante)

Guadalajara By 1 goal

26.1%

Guadalajara By 2+ goals

36.9%

Atlante By 1 goal

11.1%

Atlante By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
GUADALAJARA
Book Implied: 2.10
1
ATLANTE
Book Implied: 0.90
Simulated Score
3
GUADALAJARA
Book Implied: 2.10
0
ATLANTE
Book Implied: 0.90
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Guadalajara
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Guadalajara
94% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Atlante (+1.25)
Proj Goals: +1.0
C
Sim Guadalajara (-1.25)
Proj Goals: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u3.0
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim u3.0
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 Guadalajara vs Atlante 4 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Losses (L5) +300.0% more
Guadalajara: 0.0 vs Atlante: 3.0
Draws (L5) +200.0% more
Guadalajara: 2.0 vs Atlante: 0.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +150.0% more
Guadalajara: 2.0 vs Atlante: 5.0
Goals Scored (L5) +100.0% more
Guadalajara: 4.0 vs Atlante: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Atlante Score 1.0 2
Guadalajara Score 2.0 4
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Guadalajara (Home) vs Atlante (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Guadalajara Share: 66.7% Atlante Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Guadalajara
Atlante
Guadalajara
Atlante
ML
50% 7-7
43% 6-8
50% 7-7
14% 2-12
ATS
82% 9-2-3
64% 8-4-1
45% 5-6-3
26% 3-8-2
TTL
81% 10-2-1
21% 3-11
46% 6-7-1
56% 7-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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