Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Monterrey vs Tijuana Monterrey vs Tijuana

MONTERREYMONTERREY

6-2-5  |  Home

3
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 9:05 PM ET
Estadio BBVA

TIJUANATIJUANA

5-6-3  |  Away

3
AI Model Win Probability
MONTERREY
61%
DRAW
21%
TIJUANA
18%
▲ Edge: +41% (Tijuana)
63% Book Odds: -167
DRAW 24% Book Odds: +324
17% Book Odds: +477
Book Implied: 62.50% / 23.60% / 17.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 53%
Under 2.75 47%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+1.0
TIJUANA
Book Goal Line
+1
Book Line
MonterreyMonterrey (-1) 0 TijuanaTijuana (+1)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

70.5% / 29.5%

Shots (On Goal)

19(7) / 5(3)

Corners

9 / 2

Cards (Y/R)

3/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Tijuana +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Tijuana)

Monterrey By 1 goal

26.1%

Monterrey By 2+ goals

36.9%

Tijuana By 1 goal

11.1%

Tijuana By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
MONTERREY
Book Implied: 1.90
1
TIJUANA
Book Implied: 0.90
Simulated Score
2
MONTERREY
Book Implied: 1.90
1
TIJUANA
Book Implied: 0.90
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Monterrey Loss
42% Win Prob
D
Sim Monterrey Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tijuana (+1) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
C
Sim Tijuana (+1) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.75 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim o2.8 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 Monterrey vs Tijuana 3 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Monterrey: 2.0 vs Tijuana: 1.0
Draws (L5) +200.0% more
Tijuana: 3.0 vs Monterrey: 1.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Tijuana: 0.0 vs Monterrey: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Tijuana Score 1.0 3
Monterrey Score 2.0 3
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Monterrey (Home) vs Tijuana (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Monterrey Share: 66.7% Tijuana Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Monterrey
Tijuana
Monterrey
Tijuana
ML
29% 4-10
13% 2-13
43% 6-8
40% 6-9
ATS
58% 7-5
69% 9-4-2
46% 6-7-1
54% 7-6-2
TTL
62% 8-5-1
53% 8-7
46% 6-7-1
48% 7-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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