Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Puebla vs UNAM Puebla vs UNAM

PUEBLAPUEBLA

4-4-6  |  Home

1
FINAL
Fri, Oct 30 • 11:00 PM ET
Estadio Cuauhtémoc

UNAMUNAM

4-5-5  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
PUEBLA
35%
DRAW
31%
UNAM
35%
▲ Edge: +24.40% (Puebla)
26% Book Odds: +290
DRAW 27% Book Odds: +273
51% Book Odds: -103
Book Implied: 25.60% / 26.80% / 50.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.8 (Under)
Over 2.75 47%
Under 2.75 53%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
PUEBLA
Book Goal Line
+0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Puebla)
PueblaPuebla (+0.5) 0 UNAMUNAM (-0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

52.7% / 47.3%

Shots (On Goal)

17(6) / 13(5)

Corners

7 / 3

Cards (Y/R)

0/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Puebla 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Puebla)

Puebla By 1 goal

21.1%

Puebla By 2+ goals

15.9%

Pumas UNAM By 1 goal

21.1%

Pumas UNAM By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
PUEBLA
Book Implied: 1.10
1
UNAM
Book Implied: 1.60
Simulated Score
1
PUEBLA
Book Implied: 1.10
2
UNAM
Book Implied: 1.60
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw Loss
38% Win Prob
A
Sim Pumas UNAM Win
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Puebla (+0.5) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
C
Sim Pumas UNAM (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u2.75
Proj Total: 2.0
D
Sim o2.8
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 30, 2026 Puebla vs UNAM 1 - 2
Feb 13, 2026 Puebla vs UNAM 2 - 3
Aug 24, 2025 UNAM vs Puebla 0 - 0
Mar 7, 2025 Puebla vs UNAM 1 - 3
Sep 17, 2024 UNAM vs Puebla 1 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
UNAM: 1.0 vs Puebla: 0.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
UNAM: 1.0 vs Puebla: 2.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +28.6% more
UNAM: 7.0 vs Puebla: 9.0
Goals Scored (L5) +20.0% more
UNAM: 6.0 vs Puebla: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Pumas UNAM Score 1.0 2
Puebla Score 1.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Puebla (Home) vs Pumas UNAM (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Puebla Share: 50.0% Pumas UNAM Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Puebla
Pumas UNAM
Puebla
Pumas UNAM
ML
33% 5-10
53% 8-7
53% 8-7
29% 4-10
ATS
71% 8-3-3
57% 8-6-1
67% 7-3-4
27% 3-9-1
TTL
37% 5-8-1
68% 9-4-1
52% 7-7
68% 8-4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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