Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Juárez vs Queretaro Juárez vs Queretaro

JUÁREZJUÁREZ

1-2-11  |  Home

3
FINAL
Fri, Oct 30 • 9:00 PM ET
Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez

QUERETAROQUERETARO

6-2-6  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
JUÁREZ
61%
DRAW
21%
QUERETARO
18%
▲ Edge: +16.60% (Querétaro)
33% Book Odds: +203
DRAW 28% Book Odds: +262
42% Book Odds: +136
Book Implied: 33% / 27.60% / 42.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 2.5 58%
Under 2.5 42%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
JUÁREZ
Book Goal Line
+0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 goals (Juárez)
JuárezJuárez (+0.2) 0 QueretaroQueretaro (-0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

43.8% / 56.2%

Shots (On Goal)

15(5) / 27(6)

Corners

2 / 10

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around FC Juárez -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FC Juárez)

FC Juárez By 1 goal

26.1%

FC Juárez By 2+ goals

36.9%

Querétaro By 1 goal

11.1%

Querétaro By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
JUÁREZ
Book Implied: 1.10
1
QUERETARO
Book Implied: 1.40
Simulated Score
1
JUÁREZ
Book Implied: 1.10
3
QUERETARO
Book Implied: 1.40
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI FC Juárez Win
41% Win Prob
D
Sim Querétaro Loss
83% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI FC Juárez (+0.25) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim Querétaro (-0.25) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.5 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim o2.5 Win
Proj Total: 4.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 30, 2026 Juárez vs Queretaro 3 - 1
Apr 7, 2026 Queretaro vs Juárez 1 - 1
Nov 7, 2025 Juárez vs Queretaro 1 - 2
Apr 20, 2025 Juárez vs Queretaro 0 - 2
Nov 1, 2024 Queretaro vs Juárez 1 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +200.0% more
Juárez: 2.0 vs Queretaro: 0.0
Losses (L5) +50.0% more
Juárez: 2.0 vs Queretaro: 3.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +25.0% more
Juárez: 8.0 vs Queretaro: 10.0
Goals Scored (L5) +100.0% more
Queretaro: 4.0 vs Juárez: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Querétaro Score 1.0 1
FC Juárez Score 2.0 3
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
FC Juárez (Home) vs Querétaro (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
FC Juárez Share: 66.7% Querétaro Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FC Juárez
Querétaro
FC Juárez
Querétaro
ML
53% 8-7
43% 6-8
67% 10-5
36% 5-9
ATS
42% 5-7-3
50% 6-6-2
69% 9-4-2
38% 5-8-1
TTL
43% 6-8-1
68% 8-4-1
64% 9-5-1
60% 7-5-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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